Quevilly Rouen vs Le Puy F.43 Auvergne: match statistics

I back the away win ('2') because Le Puy F.43 Auvergne holds a clear advantage in form and league position — 5th vs 15th for Quevilly — with 4 wins in the last 5 matches compared to 2 for the home side, translating to 2.4 points average over the last 5 matches versus 1.2 for Quevilly. Offensively the visitors are more productive and create more chances: 1.62 goals per away game and 9.46 shots per game with 4 SOT, versus 1.08 goals, 6.69 shots and 2.54 SOT for the hosts; conversion rate is 17% vs 16%. Defensively the numbers also favour Le Puy — they concede 1.00 goal per away match on average and keep 31% clean sheets, while Quevilly concedes 1.46 goals at home and has only 8% clean sheets. Quality-of-chance analysis shows higher xG for the visitors (1.21 vs 0.96), i.e. 0.25 higher expected output; although xG against is slightly higher for Le Puy (1.55 vs 1.35), in practice they concede fewer goals (1.00 vs 1.46) and have allowed only 4 goals in the last 5 matches versus 10 for Quevilly. Considering the low home win rate for Quevilly (15%) and the high away win rate for Le Puy (54%), I give priority to a Le Puy victory.

I back BTTS - Yes with an estimated probability of 66% vs 34%. Quevilly Rouen has a seasonal BTTS rate of 64% and only 21% clean sheets, while Le Puy posts BTTS of 46% and 31% clean sheets; the league average BTTS is 54%, so the home profile increases the likelihood of both teams scoring. Offensively both sides produce goals: seasonal goals per game are 1.36 (Quevilly) and 1.62 (Le Puy), xG are 1.4 vs 1.21, and both average 4.0 on-target shots, which supports goals from both teams. Quevilly concedes a lot this season (42 conceded) and has averaged 2.0 goals conceded in the last 5 matches, whereas Le Puy concedes only 0.8 in their last 5, which slightly lowers but does not eliminate BTTS chances. Additionally, non-scoring rates are 14% (Quevilly) and 23% (Le Puy), i.e. 86% and 77% chances to score — the product gives roughly a 66% probability for BTTS, hence the 'yes' selection.

The forecast based on xG and seasonal goal shares indicates a total of ~2.59 expected goals: 1.48 for Quevilly Rouen (attack xG 1.40 and opponent xG 1.55) and 1.11 for Le Puy (attack xG 1.21 and opponent xG 1.01). Both teams have a very high percentage of matches with over 1.5 goals — 86% for Quevilly and 85% for Le Puy — providing a strong signal for Over 1.5 (estimated 86%). Over 2.5 is less certain: seasonal shares are 50% (Quevilly) and 46% (Le Puy), but the last 5 matches show a higher Over 2.5 rate of 60% for both, which together leads me to a moderate estimate of Over 2.5 at 52%. The probability for Over 3.5 is low (only 7% and 15% seasonally), and additionally both teams combined score 2.98 goals per season (1.36+1.62), so I rate Over 3.5 at about 11%. In summary, the strongest and most reliable signal from the data is to play the 'over' at the 1.5 line.

First-half statistics heavily favor the visitors: Le Puy led at the break in 54% of this season’s matches and average 1.15 goals by half-time versus just 0.36 for Quevilly, and the visitors have also scored 5 goals in minutes 0–15 compared to 0 for the hosts. The visitors are in good form and efficient – 54% wins this season, 80% wins in the last 5 matches and a shot conversion rate of 17% versus 11% for the hosts, which increases the likelihood of them holding the lead. Quevilly, however, produce strong second halves: 25 points earned in second halves, an average of 1.79 points in second halves and 86% of games with a goal after the break, so a turnaround to a draw is realistic. Considering the visitors’ half-time advantage (54%/1.15 vs 14%/0.36 for the hosts), their efficiency and form, I assign the highest probability to the 2/2 scenario; a significant alternative is X/2, since Quevilly were level at half-time in 57% of matches.