Quilmes vs Almagro: match statistics

Quilmes have a clearly stronger home profile: they win 50% of their matches, concede just 0.4 goals per game, and keep a clean sheet in 60% of their appearances. Away from home, Almagro average only 0.64 goals, fail to score in 64% of matches, and lose 55% of their away fixtures. The hosts also create higher-quality chances, recording an average xG of 1.44 compared with Almagro’s 0.95, while the visitors allow opponents an xG of 1.91. Recent overall form does favor Almagro, who have won 3 of their last 5 matches with 1 defeat, but Quilmes should capitalize on their significant home advantage and their opponents’ attacking struggles away from home. The low average goal output of both teams suggests a tight, relatively low-scoring contest, with a slight edge for the hosts.

BTTS - Yes is clearly constrained by the seasonal profiles of both teams: Quilmes and Almagro record it in just 36% of matches each, compared with the league average of 40%. Almagro scores only 0.64 goals per away match and fails to find the net in as many as 64% of such games, while Quilmes keeps a clean sheet in 45% of home fixtures. The hosts should have favorable conditions to score, as Almagro concedes an average of 1.55 goals away from home, with a high average xG conceded of 1.91. Although Quilmes has conceded 9 goals in its last 5 matches, the visitors' attack has still produced only 1.09 xG over this period, making a scenario in which at least one team fails to score more likely. Therefore, the recommended market is BTTS - No, meaning that at least one team is expected not to score; this does not automatically imply a 0:0 result or that neither team will score.

The season profile clearly favors a low-scoring outcome: Quilmes matches finished with under 2.5 goals in 82% of cases, compared with 64% for Almagro. An even stronger signal concerns the 3.5-goal line, which no Quilmes match exceeded, while 82% of Almagro’s games also stayed below it. The visitors average just 0.64 goals per match and failed to score in 64% of their appearances, while Quilmes have kept a clean sheet in 45% of matches. The hosts have a favorable matchup for finding the net, as their opponents concede an average of 1.55 goals, but Quilmes’ own scoring average is only 1.18. Quilmes’ last five matches were more open, averaging 3.0 goals, but the projected total of 2.05 goals still provides a clear safety margin for Under 3.5 goals.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a Quilmes victory at full-time, as the hosts were level at the break in 73% of their matches, while Almagro were trailing at half-time in 45%. Quilmes play very cautiously before the interval, scoring an average of just 0.09 goals while conceding 0.18, and as many as 82% of their matches had a first half without a goal conceded. After the break, the hosts improve significantly, scoring an average of 1.09 goals and winning the second half in 64% of cases; Almagro score only 0.18 goals in second halves and fail to find the net in 82% of them. Quilmes’ advantage is further supported by their season-long results: 55% wins and an average of 1.82 points per match, compared with Almagro’s 18% win rate and 0.82 points, while the visitors concede an average of 1.55 goals away from home.