Racing vs Progreso: match statistics
Racing is in significantly better form, having won 4 of their last 5 matches overall, while Progreso has won only once in the same period. The hosts boast an impressive 75% win rate at home and a solid 75% clean sheets at their own ground, indicating a strong defense. Offensive stats also favor Racing – they average 2 goals per home match while conceding just 1, whereas Progreso in away matches concedes an average of 1.33 goals and scores only 1 per game. Furthermore, xG confirms the hosts' advantage (1.78 vs 0.98 for the visitors), and the possession difference (49% vs 44%) along with shots on target efficiency (5.25 vs 2.67 per match) further strengthens the case for a Racing victory. Considering all these factors, the hosts are clear favorites for this match.
Racing vs Progreso: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Racing played Progreso in Primera División (Uruguay). The match was played on 26 March 2026. Final score: 1:1.
Current form
Racing: 5-0-0, 3.00 points/match. Progreso: 1-2-2, 1.00 points/match.
Goal statistics
Racing scores 1.86 and concedes 0.86 goals per match. Progreso scores 0.71 and concedes 1.57. League average: 2.31 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Racing 43%, Progreso 29%. Over 2.5: Racing 43%, Progreso 43%. League level: BTTS 45%, Over 2.5 45%.
xG, shots and style
Racing has higher xG: 1.64 vs 1.04. Racing: 13.4 shots per match, Progreso: 7.6.
Match halves
Racing: half-time lead 14%, second-half goals 1.29. Progreso: half-time lead 14%, second-half goals 0.43.
Goals by minute
Racing: 76-90+ (5 goals). Progreso: 76-90+ (3 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Primera División: 2.31 goals per match, BTTS 45%, Over 2.5 45%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 3 previous H2H matches were available: 2-1-0. Average goals 1.33, BTTS 0%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Racing is in significantly better form, having won 4 of their last 5 matches overall, while Progreso has won only once in the same period. The hosts boast an impressive 75% win rate at home and a solid 75% clean sheets at their own ground, indicating a strong defense. Offensive stats also favor Racing – they average 2 goals per home match while conceding just 1, whereas Progreso in away matches concedes an average of 1.33 goals and scores only 1 per game. Furthermore, xG confirms the hosts' advantage (1.78 vs 0.98 for the visitors), and the possession difference (49% vs 44%) along with shots on target efficiency (5.25 vs 2.67 per match) further strengthens the case for a Racing victory. Considering all these factors, the hosts are clear favorites for this match.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Seasonal data strongly undervalues the chances of BTTS: Racing has only a 25% BTTS rate and as many as 75% of matches without a goal scored, averaging just 0.5 goals scored per match. Progreso has a 33% BTTS rate and 33% clean sheets, which further strengthens the scenario in which Racing fails to score. On the other hand, Racing has no clean sheets this season (0%) and concedes an average of 1.75 goals, but the last 5 matches show a clear defensive improvement (0.4 goals conceded; 2 goals in 5 matches), which limits Progreso's chances of scoring. The xG metrics are moderate (xG for: 1.03 vs 0.98), and Progreso generates a high xG against (1.63), yet given Racing's low offensive efficiency this season, the risk of the hosts not scoring remains crucial. Compared to the league average (BTTS 46%), both teams perform below average in BTTS, therefore the most probable outcome is BTTS: No.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
The goal model based on average xG (Racing xG_for 1.03 vs Progreso xG_against 1.63 and Progreso xG_for 0.98 vs Racing xG_against 1.38) indicates approx. 2.40 total goals. Both teams generate few shots (7.5 and 6.33) and few shots on target (2.5 and 2.67), which limits the goal ceiling despite Racing's seasonally weaker defense. Historical line profiles confirm a low 'ceiling': Under 3.5 occurs in 75% of Racing's matches and 67% of Progreso's, while Under 4.5 stands at 100% for both sides. Additionally, BTTS is low (25% and 33%), and Racing often fails to score (FTS 75%), which favors scorelines like 1:0/1:1/2:0 rather than high-scoring games. In the last 5 matches, Racing has significantly improved its defense (0.4 goals conceded and xG_against 1.02), further boosting the probability of a scenario with a maximum of 3 goals. Therefore, the strongest signal in the data is a bet on Under 3.5.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
The strongest signal for the half-time result is a draw: Racing has a 100% draw rate at HT in their last 5 matches and a very low goal pace in the first half (HT avg 0.4), and Progreso also frequently draws at the break (60%). In the second half, Racing significantly improves their efficiency in the L5 form (scored_2hg_avg 1.0 with conceded_2hg_avg 0.2), which favors a 'turnaround' scenario after HT. Progreso has more solid seasonal results (PPG 1.33 vs 0.25), but their defense in qualitative data appears vulnerable (xg_against_avg 1.63) and in L5 they concede more (conceded 1.2). Racing in L5 has a very high points efficiency (PPG 2.4; 80% wins), which, given the predicted draw at the break, boosts the probability of the hosts winning after halftime. At the same time, I maintain significant stakes on X/X and X/2, because seasonally Racing has low scoring (0.5) and a high loss rate (75%), so the risk of no turnaround or a counter from Progreso remains real.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Racing | Progreso | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 38% | 34% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.14 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.36 | 0.28 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Racing is 200% better for: last-5 form.
3 pts / match - Racing · 1 pts / match - Progreso
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Racing is 162% better for: goals scored per match.
1.86 goals / match - Racing · 0.71 goals / match - Progreso
Racing is 83% better for: goals conceded per match.
0.86 goals / match - Racing · 1.57 goals / match - Progreso
Racing scores in 100% of matches (7 of 7 matches), while Progreso keeps a clean sheet in 14% (1 of 7 matches).
Progreso scores in 43% of matches (3 of 7 matches), while Racing keeps a clean sheet in 57% (4 of 7 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Racing
Over / Under - Progreso
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Racing is 33% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.14 pts / match - Racing · 0.86 pts / match - Progreso
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Racing - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 14% of matches and wins 71%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Progreso - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 14% of matches and wins 14%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.2 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.40 | 3.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| Average goals in match | 0.6 | 1.6 |
| 1 goal | 40% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 100% |
| No goal | 60% | 0% |
| Goal difference | +1 | +8 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 0.8 | 1.4 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 40% |
| No goal | 60% | 40% |
| Goal difference | 0 | -1 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (5 goals). Concedes most in 0-15 (2). Late-goal balance (76-90): +3 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (3 goals). Concedes most in 61-75 (4). Late-goal balance (76-90): +3 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Racing
Progreso
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Primera División).
Teams vs league
| Racing | Liga | Progreso | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 2.71 | 2.31 | • 2.29 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 43% | 45% | ▼ 29% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 43% | 45% | ▼ 43% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 57% | 31% | ▼ 14% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 57% | 66% | ▲ 71% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 86% | 76% | ▲ 86% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (3): Racing 2 - 1 - 0 Progreso. Average goals 1.33, both teams scored in 0% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Racing vs Progreso?
The Primera División match finished Racing 1:1 Progreso. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Racing and Progreso?
In the last 3 head-to-head matches Racing won 2, Progreso won 0 and 1 ended level. These games averaged 1.33 goals, with both teams scoring in 0% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Racing vs Progreso?
Racing score 1.86 goals per game on average and Progreso 0.71. The Primera División average is 2.31 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 45% of games. Both teams score in 43% of Racing's matches and 29% of Progreso's.
What form are Racing and Progreso in?
Over the last 5 games Racing have a 5-0-0 record (3.00 points per game) and Progreso 1-2-2 (1.00 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Racing vs Progreso?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for Racing vs Progreso: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.