Radnički Niš vs Čukarički: match statistics

Radnički Niš has a clear form advantage — they have won 4 of their last 5 matches (form: wwwwl) and scored 7 goals in those games, while Čukarički has not won in their last 5 (llddl) and scored only 1 goal. Defensively both teams are similar: in the last 5 matches each conceded 4 goals, so Radnički’s edge stems mainly from better offensive efficiency. This is reflected in the points per last five matches — the hosts average 2.4 points per game versus the visitors’ 0.4. Over the whole season the numbers are low (Radnički Niš has 1 goal scored and 1 loss, Čukarički 0 goals and 1 loss), so the most recent five matches are more representative. Considering 7 goals scored versus 1 and the difference in average points (2.4 vs 0.4), I predict a home win and estimate the probabilities at roughly 70% home, 18% draw and 12% away.

Radnički Niš has an average xG of 1.63 in the last 5 matches and scored 7 goals (1.4 goals per match), conceding 0.8 goals per match, indicating a clear offensive edge for the home side. Čukarički, despite an xG of 1.02 over these five games, scored only 1 goal (0.2 goals per match) and recorded BTTS in just 20% of the last 5 matches, demonstrating low attacking efficiency for the away team. The league BTTS rate is 43%, but the home side had BTTS in 60% of their last five matches versus 20% for the away side, and recent forms 'wwwwl' vs 'llddl' further favour Radnički Niš. Given the significant difference in average goals 1.4 vs 0.2 and the low historical BTTS share in the away team’s matches, I recommend a

xG and form analysis indicates elevated goal potential: in the last 5 matches the home side have xG advantage of 1.63, while the visitors concede on average 2.44 xG per game, pointing to many chances for Radnički Niš. Taking the averages (1.63 + 2.44)/2 yields expected home goals ≈2.04; similarly (1.02 + 1.02)/2 gives expected away goals ≈1.02, total ≈3.06. Confirmation in results: Radnički Niš scored 7 goals in the last 5 matches (1.4 per game), whereas Čukarički only 1 goal in 5 matches (0.2), and the visitors have 3 losses and 2 draws in their last 5. A Poisson model with λ≈3.06 gives about 81% for Over 1.5, ~59% for Over 2.5 and ~37% for Over 3.5, suggesting a market edge on Over 1.5 goals. The strongest signal is Over 1.5 – high home xG (1.63), significant xG conceded by the visitors (2.44) and good home form (4 wins in last 5) support this bet.

Data show a clear advantage for Radnički in chance creation: home average xG 1.60 versus 0.00 for the visitors, and on average 14 shots with 4 on target for the hosts compared to 0 shots for the opponent. In their last five matches Radnički won 4 of 5 (80% win rate), but 4 of those 5 were level at the break (80% HT draws), suggesting the lead may come only after half-time. Seasonally the hosts concede an average of 1.00 goals before the break and have been trailing at HT in 100% of recorded cases, however in second halves of the last five matches they score on average 1.2 goals and have a second-half average of 1.6, indicating strength after the interval. Considering the visitors’ zero xG and lack of shots alongside the hosts’ strong win record (80% in the last five), the most likely progression is a draw at half-time and a home victory at full-time (HT/FT: X/1).