Radnički Niš vs Radnički Kragujevac: match statistics

Radnički Kragujevac sit 6th and have won 3 of their 5 matches so far, while Radnički Niš are 13th with a record of just 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats. The visitors are clearly superior in terms of current form, having won their last three matches, whereas the hosts have managed only 0.8 points per game over their last five fixtures. Niš’s key problem is their home form: they lost their only match there, failed to score despite an average xG of 1.75, and conceded 2 goals per game. Kragujevac also have poor away numbers, scoring just 0.33 goals per game on the road and failing to find the net in 67% of such matches, but their defence concedes an average of 1.33 goals compared with the hosts’ 2.00. The visitors’ superior form and more effective season record point to a narrow but well-justified victory.

The strongest signal points to BTTS - No: Radnički Kragujevac score an average of just 0.33 goals per away match and failed to score in 67% of such fixtures. In their last five matches, both teams recorded BTTS in only 20% of cases, while the hosts averaged just 0.4 goals per game. Radnički Niš keep a clean sheet in 50% of their home matches, whereas the visitors manage a clean sheet in only 33% of away fixtures, which supports a one-sided result scenario more than goals at both ends. Although the visitors’ xG stands at 1.59, their shot conversion rate is only 3%, compared with 14% for the hosts, so converting chances into goals remains a clear problem. Additionally, the league BTTS rate is just 34%, further strengthening the forecast that at least one team will fail to score.

The strongest signal points to Under 3.5 goals, as both teams have stayed below this line in 100% of their league matches so far. Radnički Kragujevac average just 0.33 goals away from home and failed to score in 67% of such appearances, which clearly limits the potential for an open game. The hosts do have high average figures of 2.01 xG and 18.0 shots, but their actual scoring output over the last five matches is only 0.4 goals per game. The visitors generate an average of 1.59 xG, while the hosts’ defence allows just 1.09 xG, so the projected total of 2.15 goals supports a moderate rather than a very high-scoring game.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a Radnički Kragujevac win at full-time, as the visitors have won 3 of their last 5 matches, while Radnički Niš have won only 1 of 5. In the same sample, the hosts scored just 0.4 goals per match and only 0.2 before the break, while 80% of their matches were level at half-time. The visitors were more effective early in matches, averaging 0.8 goals in the first half and leading at the break in 60% of their last five appearances; however, their 40% half-time loss rate increases the likelihood of an even opening. Although Niš have very strong home-season statistics, scoring 2.5 goals and recording a 100% win rate, their current attacking form and the visitors’ advantage in the last five matches—1.8 points per game compared with 0.8—support a turnaround after the interval.