Radnik Bijeljina vs Rudar Prijedor: match statistics

I back the home win (1). Radnik Bijeljina holds a defensive edge at home: they concede 0.8 goals per home match versus Rudar Prijedor’s 1.33 goals conceded away, and the home clean sheet rate is 53% compared to 27% for the visitors. In attack Radnik averages 0.93 goals per home game with an average xG of 1.23, while Rudar on the road records 0.6 goals and xG 1.04, indicating the hosts create better chances and convert them more efficiently (9% vs 7% conversion). The last five fixtures, however, show a points advantage for the visitors — Rudar collected 6 points (1.2 per match) and scored 4 goals, while Radnik only 2 points (0.4) and 2 goals; simultaneously Radnik conceded 8 goals in that span versus 5 conceded by Rudar. Radnik’s home goal difference is +2, whereas Rudar’s away goal difference is -11, so despite the visitors’ superior recent form I favour the hosts (approx. 60% chance), a draw at 25% and an away win at 15%.

I assess the probability of BTTS - Yes at 36% and No at 64%, therefore I recommend a 'No' bet. Radnik's seasonal BTTS rate is 53% while Rudar's is only 27%, with the league average at 37%, indicating asymmetry that favors No Goal. Season average goals scored are 0.87 (Radnik) and 0.60 (Rudar), with average goals conceded 1.40 and 1.33; despite xG of 1.24 vs 1.04, low shot conversion (9% and 7%) limits actual goals. In the last 5 matches the home side scored 2 goals (0.4 per game) and conceded 8 (1.6 per game), the away side scored 4 (0.8) and conceded 5 (1.0), and recent BTTS rates are 40% vs 20%, which further reduces the likelihood of both teams scoring. Considering the clear seasonal BTTS gap (53% vs 27%), low average goals scored (0.87 and 0.60) and poor shot conversion, the No variant is stronger (64%) than Yes (36%).

The combined xG for both teams is 1.24 (Radnik) + 1.04 (Rudar) = 2.28, slightly above the league average of 2.13, suggesting roughly 2.3 expected goals. Radnik averages 0.87 goals per game this season, Rudar 0.60, and the share of matches over 1.5 goals is 73% for Radnik and 47% for Rudar — averaging to about a 60% probability for Over 1.5. Additionally, both teams have high rates of matches with at least one goal: 93% (Radnik) and 87% (Rudar), plus shots on target of 3.2 vs 3.07 and conversion rates of 9% vs 7%, which support the likelihood of goals. Over 2.5 occurs less frequently (40% vs 33%, average ~37%), and Over 3.5 even less (20% vs 13%, ~17%), therefore the strongest and most reliable signal from the data is Over 1.5. Given these figures, I recommend backing the Over line at 1.5 as the most probable outcome with a statistical edge.

A draw at half-time is the most likely scenario: the home team were level at the break in 40% of matches and the away team in 60%, yielding an average of about a 50% chance of an HT draw. For full-time, a home win is more probable — home teams won 27% of matches versus 13% for away wins, while away teams lost 53% of their matches, which gives roughly a 40% probability for a home win and 27% for a full-time draw. The home side shows higher value in xG (1.24 vs 1.04), more shots (9.53 vs 8.33) and better conversion (9% vs 7%), so if the score is level at the break they are more likely to tilt the result in their favor. Additionally, goals in the second half are common — 80% of home matches and 73% of away matches feature at least one goal after the break — therefore the Half-Time/Full-Time scenario draw at half-time and home win at full-time (X/1) is the strongest signal and I estimate its probability at about 20%.