Radnik Bijeljina vs Zrinjski: match statistics

Zrinjski sit 2nd, while Radnik Bijeljina are fourth, and the visitors made the better start to the season, winning their only match so far 2:1. In their last five matches, Zrinjski have scored 9 goals, averaging 1.8 per game, whereas Radnik have failed to score a single goal during that period. The hosts are on a winless run comprising 3 draws and 2 defeats, while their return of 0.6 points per game across their last five outings is clearly inferior to Zrinjski’s 1.6 points. Radnik have conceded 5 goals in those five matches, but the key issue remains their complete lack of attacking efficiency, which is why the visitors should be given the better chance of winning. However, both teams have recorded two or three draws in their last five matches, maintaining a significant probability of a share of the points.

The strongest signal is Radnik’s poor finishing in their current form: they have failed to score a single goal in their last 5 matches, despite conceding an average of 1.0 goal. Zrinjski clearly possess greater attacking potential, averaging 1.8 goals across their last five matches alongside a high xG of 2.04, making an away goal likely. However, Radnik have generated only 0.97 xG per match during this period, while Zrinjski’s defence has limited opponents to just 0.91 xG. Radnik’s seasonal 100% BTTS record is based on a very small sample and contradicts their five-match scoreless run, so the more realistic scenario is BTTS - No, meaning that at least one team will fail to score.

Zrinjski presents a clearly stronger attacking profile: over the last 5 matches, they averaged 1.8 goals scored, with an impressive average xG of 2.04. During the same period, Radnik failed to score, recording an xG of just 0.97, so their projected goal contribution remains limited despite playing at home. The hosts conceded an average of 1.0 goals per match in their last 5 fixtures, while Zrinjski conceded 1.2, which supports a result around 0:1, 0:2, or 1:1 rather than an open, high-scoring game. Only 20% of Radnik’s recent matches and 80% of Zrinjski’s fixtures went Over 2.5 goals, but the combined projection of 2.30 goals still gives a clearer edge to the Under 3.5 option. Under 3.5 is the safest choice, as it requires at least four goals to lose, while Radnik’s poor finishing reduces the likelihood of such a scenario.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a Zrinjski win at full-time, as Radnik have failed to score in any of their last five matches, while Zrinjski have averaged 1.8 goals per game. The hosts were drawing at the break in 80% of these matches, compared with 60% for the visitors, which clearly supports a cautious, level opening. After the interval, Zrinjski won 60% of their matches and conceded an average of just 0.2 goals, while Radnik failed to score in any second half. The visitors also recorded a higher average points return across their last five matches—1.6 compared with 0.6—so they should take control in the closing stages. The recommended HT/FT selection is X/2.