Radnik Surdulica vs Radnički Niš: match statistics

Radnik Surdulica are seventh in the table, while Radnički Niš sit thirteenth. The hosts are unbeaten at home so far, winning 50% of their matches there, whereas the visitors have lost 67% of their away games. At home, Radnik score an average of 1.83 goals per match and concede 1.17, while Radnički manage just 0.33 goals per away game and fail to score in 67% of their matches. The hosts’ greater finishing efficiency is also reflected in their shot conversion rates: 12% compared with the visitors’ 2%. However, the teams’ similar xG figures — 1.73 and 1.69 — suggest that Radnički can create chances. In their last five matches, Radnik have lost once and conceded 7 goals, while Radnički have lost three times and conceded 10, further strengthening the case for a home win.

The strongest argument for BTTS - No, meaning at least one team will fail to score, is Radnički Niš’s away scoring record: an average of 0.33 goals per match and no goal in 67% of those fixtures. The hosts average 1.25 goals at home, while the visitors concede 1.17 away, so the greater risk of a team failing to score lies with the visitors. Past results point in the same direction: both teams scored in 17% of Radnički’s away matches, compared with 75% of Radnik’s home games. However, the signal is not conclusive: in their last 5 matches, both teams scored in 60% of games, and the visitors’ away xG is 1.69, suggesting they create more chances than their goals tally reflects. Even so, their 2% away shot conversion rate supports a cautious selection of BTTS - No.

The strongest signal points to Under 3.5 goals: all of Radnički Niš’s away matches finished below this line, although the same was true in only 50% of Radnik’s home games. The visitors average just 0.33 goals away from home and have failed to score in 67% of matches, limiting the likelihood of a high-scoring game. Radnik average 1.25 goals at home, while Radnički concede 1.17 away; moreover, the visitors have conceded an average of 2.0 goals across their last five matches, giving the hosts reason to expect a goal. The projected totals of 1.55 goals for the hosts and 0.85 for the visitors add up to 2.40, comfortably below the selected line. The main risk is the visitors’ average away xG of 1.69, so the bet’s edge stems more from their poor finishing than from a lack of chances.

The strongest scenario is Radnik Surdulica leading at the break and maintaining that advantage through to the final whistle: the hosts led at half-time in 2 of their 4 home matches, while Radnički Niš did not lead in any of their 6 away games. The visitors average just 0.17 goals before half-time away from home and failed to score in the first half in 83% of those matches, limiting the chances of an early lead. Across full matches, Radnik average 1.25 goals at home compared with the visitors’ 0.33 away, and Radnički failed to score in 67% of their away games. In addition, the hosts’ average xG is 1.62, while the visitors allow opponents chances worth 1.79 xG, supporting Radnik’s prospects of finding the net. A half-time draw remains a significant alternative, having occurred in 4 of Radnički’s 6 away games; however, the hosts’ superior scoring efficiency most strongly favours the 1/1 HT/FT outcome.