Radnik Surdulica vs Red Star Belgrade: match statistics

Red Star Belgrade are clear favorites: they sit 1st with a record of 22 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses and 82 goals scored, while Radnik Surdulica are 7th with 10 wins and 36 goals. In their last five matches the visitors have won all 5, scoring 12 and conceding only 1, while Radnik have a 2-3-0 record with 8 goals for and 5 against. Offensive metrics strongly favor Red Star: on average 2.36 goals per away game versus 1.57 scored by Radnik at home, average xG 2.60 vs 1.86, and 22.71 shots and 8.86 on target per match versus 15.07 and 5.07 for the hosts. Radnik have a solid home defense (1.00 goals conceded per game and 43% clean sheets), but the visitors’ superiority in quality of chances (xG higher by 0.74) and better away goal difference (+19 vs +8) argue for Red Star. Based on this I predict an away win; suggested probabilities are 72% for Red Star win, 18% for draw and 10% for Radnik win.

Both teams show strong offensive metrics: xG is 2.54 for the home side and 2.60 for the away side (combined ~5.14), with shots on target 9.0 vs 8.86, indicating both teams consistently create scoring opportunities. Radnik at home has a season average of 3.5 goals scored (1.6 in the last 5 matches), a season BTTS rate of 36% and 80% in the last 5 home games, showing high variability but recent frequency of Goal/Goal outcomes. Red Star as the visitor averages 2.36 goals per game this season, has 82 goals scored in the season and 12 goals in the last 5 matches (2.4 avg.), and a seasonal away BTTS rate of 57%, indicating realistic potential to score in this fixture. There are defensive signals opposing BTTS: Radnik has a 57% clean sheet expected at home, and Red Star has conceded only 1 goal in the last 5 matches (0.2 avg.), which lowers the probability of both teams scoring. Considering the combined xG of 5.14, the high proportion of matches over 2.5 goals (both teams 71%) and the strong shooting figures for both sides, I assess BTTS - Yes at 65% versus 35% for No Goal and recommend: Yes.

xG and goals-per-game analysis points to a high-scoring match: the home side has an attacking xG of 2.54 against Red Star’s average away xG conceded of 1.03, implying about 1.79 expected goals for Radnik. For the visitors, attacking xG of 2.60 versus the home side’s xG conceded of 0.89 translates to roughly 1.74 expected goals, totaling 3.53 expected goals. Seasonal metrics confirm a tendency for open games — Over 2.5 occurred in 71% of both teams’ matches, and Over 1.5 in 86% (Radnik) and 79% (Red Star). A Poisson model based on 3.53 goals yields approximately an 87% chance of Over 1.5, 69% for Over 2.5 and 47% for Over 3.5, so the strongest signal is Over 2.5. Additionally, form over the last 5 matches shows Red Star scored 12 goals (avg. 2.4) and Radnik 8 goals (avg. 1.6), which reinforces the higher-goals projection.

Red Star as the away team have won all 5 of their last 5 matches (100%) and were leading at the break in 5 of 5 (100%), with an average of 1.8 goals scored by half-time and only 0.2 conceded by half-time. Home side Radnik show strong season numbers — an average of 3.5 goals scored per match and 1.5 goals by half-time, and they led at the break in 79% of league matches this season (11 instances); however, in their last 5 matches the hosts led at the break only once (20%) and were behind at half-time in 60% (3 of 5). xG are comparable: 2.54 for the hosts versus 2.6 for the visitors, but Red Star’s edge emerges in form and result stability (their last 5 matches yield an average of 3.0 points per game and they kept a half-time clean sheet in 4 of 5, i.e. 80%). For these reasons the strongest signal is the away side leading at the break and going on to win (2/2) — I assign this scenario a 45% probability; 20% is assigned to the half-time draw and away win (X/2); remaining outcomes are considered less likely, given the hosts’ seasonal strengths but their weaker recent HT form.