Radomiak Radom vs Górnik Zabrze: match statistics

Radomiak have home advantage: in their only home match so far, they won, scored 2 goals and averaged 13 shots, including 4 on target. Górnik do occupy the higher position, 5th, and have scored 10 goals in their last five matches compared with Radomiak’s 6, but their run also includes 2 defeats. The hosts are effective at home, converting 15% of their shots, although their xG of 1.39 is slightly lower than their xG against of 1.45, indicating a risk of conceding. Radomiak have conceded as many as 13 goals in their last five matches, so this should be a closely contested game, but home advantage gives the hosts a slight edge.

The BTTS signal is clear, as both teams have recorded this scenario in 80% of their last 5 matches, above the league average of 65%. Radomiak conceded as many as 2.6 goals per match during this run, with an xG against of 2.05, giving Górnik strong grounds to score. Górnik have recently averaged 2.0 goals and generated 1.64 xG, while their opponents have scored 1.2 goals per game. Górnik’s defence is also far from watertight, conceding 8 goals in five appearances, or 1.6 per match, with 1.59 xG allowed to opponents. Although the away data from the current season is very limited, the combination of current form and the hosts’ high number of goals conceded more clearly supports BTTS - Yes / Goal/Goal rather than BTTS - No.

The latest results of both teams point to an open game profile: in their last five matches, Radomiak averaged 1.2 goals scored and 2.6 conceded, resulting in as many as 3.8 goals per game. Over the same period, Górnik scored 2.0 goals per match, while their games produced an average of 3.6 goals, with 1.6 conceded. Both teams recorded a Both Teams to Score result in 80% of their last five matches, while the 2.5-goal line was exceeded in 80% and 60% of those games, respectively. The xG indicators are particularly significant: Górnik created chances worth 1.64 xG, while Radomiak’s defence allowed opponents 2.05 xG. A projected total of 3.15 goals gives a clear edge to Over 1.5, as even with a partial drop in finishing efficiency, the data from both teams strongly supports at least two goals.

The strongest scenario is Górnik leading at half-time and securing the win after the final whistle, as the visitors have averaged 1.4 goals before the break in their last five matches, while Radomiak have conceded 1.4 goals during that period. The hosts have scored only 0.6 goals per game in the first half and have gone into the break trailing in as many as 40% of their recent matches, a figure similar to Górnik’s; however, the Zabrze-based side had a positive half-time goal difference of +3, compared with Radomiak’s -4. The full-match form also favours the visitors: they have averaged 2.0 goals and 1.4 points per game, whereas Radomiak have conceded as many as 2.6 goals and collected just 0.8 points. A draw at half-time remains a realistic alternative, as Górnik were level at the break in 40% of their recent appearances, but the hosts’ defensive problems increase the likelihood that the visitors’ lead will be maintained until the end.