Radomiak Radom vs Lech Poznań: match statistics

I back Lech to win. The visitors have superior season numbers: 15 wins versus Radomiak’s 11 and 57 goals scored versus 49, with average xG of 1.83 for Lech vs 1.67 for the hosts, indicating an advantage in the quality of created chances. In the last 5 matches Lech has scored 11 goals and remained unbeaten (3 wins, 2 draws) averaging 2.2 points per game, while Radomiak has 6 goals and 2.0 points per game, so recent form slightly favors the visitors. However, Radomiak at their stadium score on average 2.00 goals and have a higher conversion rate (13% vs 8%), which gives them tangible effectiveness at home. Defensively both teams concede on average 0.94 goals, but Lech records 50% clean sheets away compared to only 19% for Radomiak at home, which argues for the visitors’ defensive stability.

Radomiak has a very high seasonal BTTS at home — 88% — while Lech’s away BTTS is 44% and the league average is 56%, suggesting a tilt towards a both-teams-to-score scenario. The hosts average 2.31 goals at home, have xG 2.13, average 19.63 shots and 6.75 on target per match with a 12% conversion, but concede 1.69 goals seasonally, which favors goal exchanges. Lech in the last 5 matches has xG_for 2.43 and averages 2.2 goals, yet seasonally records 50% clean sheets away and concedes only 0.94 goals per match, which only partially reduces the BTTS probability. In the last 5, Radomiak had BTTS in 40% of games and scored on average 1.2 goals, which weakens the 88% seasonal signal; however, the aggregate seasonal data (strong home attack for Radomiak 2.31 and active Lech attack 2.43 xG over 5 matches) leads me to a higher assessment of the BTTS — Yes option.

Radomiak averages 4.00 goals per home match (2.31 scored, 1.69 conceded), while Lech averages 2.19 goals away (1.25 scored, 0.94 conceded), indicating a high combined goal potential. xG shows 2.13 for Radomiak at home and 1.83 for Lech away; their summed xG_for is 3.96, and a more conservative approach (average of team offensive xG and opponent defensive xG) yields expected goals of 1.82 for the home side and 1.60 for the visitors, totaling 3.42. Radomiak has 88% of home matches over 2.5 goals and 100% over 1.5, while Lech have 44% away over 2.5 and 50% over 1.5, which tilts the balance toward overs, especially Over 2.5. Additionally, Radomiak averages 19.63 shots and 6.75 on target with a 12% conversion, and Lech 16.0 shots and 5.38 on target with an 8% conversion, supporting the expectation of multiple scoring chances from both sides. Considering the above metrics, the strongest signal is Over 2.5 (approx. 78%), Over 1.5 is almost certain (approx. 95%), and Over 3.5 is less likely (approx. 44%); therefore I recommend a bet on Over 2.5.

The most likely scenario is Lech leading at the break and winning the match (HT/FT = 2/2). Lech led at half-time in 56% of their away matches, while Radomiak led at the break in only 31% of their home games; in the last five matches Lech led at half-time in 60% of cases versus 20% for Radomiak. After full-time the favoring signal also lies with Lech: Lech win 50% of away games compared to Radomiak’s 44% home wins, and Lech keep a clean sheet in 50% of away matches versus 13% for Radomiak at home. It should be noted, however, that Radomiak at home has a high rate of both teams scoring — 88% of home matches with BTTS — and they average 2.31 goals per game (xG 2.13), so the hosts have a realistic chance to score even if they ultimately lose.