Radomiak Radom vs Zagłębie Lubin: match statistics

Radomiak are in poor overall form, with four defeats in their last five matches and a 6:18 goal difference, but they have won half of their home games. Zagłębie sit higher in 5th place; however, they lost their only away match so far, conceding as many as 3 goals while allowing opponents an average of 2.37 xG. The hosts create slightly more high-quality chances at home, averaging 1.46 xG compared with Zagłębie’s 1.17 xG away from home, and they also record 4.5 shots on target per match versus 2 for the visitors. Neither defence inspires confidence, as neither side has kept a clean sheet, but Radomiak have scored in every home game and could exploit their opponents’ clear problems away from home. Home advantage and the hosts’ superior attacking output marginally favour a Radomiak win.

The BTTS - Yes pick is supported by the fact that Zagłębie has recorded goals from both teams in 100% of its matches so far, while Radomiak has done so in 80% of its last five games. During this run, the hosts have conceded as many as 3.6 goals per match, with the opposition recording an xG of 2.21 against them, clearly increasing Zagłębie’s chances of scoring. Radomiak should also exploit the visitors’ very weak defence: Zagłębie has kept no clean sheets and concedes an average of 3.0 goals away from home, while allowing an xG of 2.37. The hosts score an average of 2.0 goals at home, register 3.5 shots on target per match and have a 16% conversion rate, compared with 8% for Zagłębie. The only risk is Zagłębie’s average of just 1.0 goal per match; however, Radomiak’s poor defensive form makes a scenario in which both teams score more likely than one in which at least one team fails to score.

Radomiak averages 2.0 goals at home, while Zagłębie concedes as many as 3.0 goals per away match, significantly strengthening the hosts’ attacking potential. The average xG also favors Radomiak: they create chances worth 1.47 xG, while their opponents allow 2.37 xG. In their last five matches, Radomiak conceded an average of 3.6 goals, and their games ended with at least three goals in 100% of cases. Zagłębie has scored in every away match so far and has kept no clean sheets, making a scenario with at least two goals the most likely outcome. Over 1.5 is best supported by both teams’ attacking and defensive profiles, as well as the projected total of 2.98 goals.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a Zagłębie victory in the match, as the visitors were level at the break in 60% of their last five games, while Radomiak recorded no half-time draws during that period. Radomiak scored just 0.4 goals per match before the break while conceding as many as 2.2, indicating a high risk of a poor start despite home advantage. After half-time, the hosts conceded an average of 1.4 goals in their last five matches, whereas Zagłębie allowed opponents only 0.6 goals. Current form also slightly favours the visitors: they won 40% of their last five matches and averaged 1.2 points, compared with Radomiak’s 20% win rate and 0.6 points. The hosts’ advantage in season data, where they score 2.0 goals per match while Zagłębie concede 3.0, limits confidence in the pick, but the first-half and closing-phase profiles point more towards the visitors taking control of the match after the break.