Radomlje vs Koper: match statistics

Koper is the clear favorite: they sit 2nd vs 6th Radomlje, have 15 wins this season vs 10 and 61 goals scored vs 40. Form over the last 5 matches favors the visitors — Koper scored 12 goals and have a record of 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss (an average of 2.0 points per game), while Radomlje scored 5 goals and have 1 win and 4 losses (0.6 points per game). Shot and chance metrics show Koper’s advantage: away they average 13.21 shots (4.93 on target) with xG 1.71 vs the home side’s 9.07 shots (3.71 on target) and xG 1.36, suggesting more and better goal-scoring opportunities. Defensively Radomlje also looks weaker — the hosts concede on average 1.93 goals at home and have conceded 11 goals in the last 5 matches, while Koper concedes 1.71 goals away and has conceded only 5 goals in that period; therefore I assess the probabilities as: Koper 60%, draw 25%, Radomlje win 15%.

Both teams show a clear BTTS trend: Radomlje has BTTS 67% at home, while Koper posts 79% away, versus the league average of 62%. In the last 5 matches Radomlje had BTTS in 80% of games and conceded 11 goals (2.2 per game), whereas Koper scored 12 goals in their last 5 (2.4 avg) and had BTTS in 60% of fixtures. xG stats support goals from both sides: xG-for 1.78 (Radomlje) vs 1.71 (Koper), and xG-against 1.41 vs 1.59 shows both defenses allow around 1.4–1.6 xG to opponents. Additionally, 73% of Radomlje’s matches finish over 2.5 goals and Koper 64%, with an over2.5 + BTTS configuration occurring for Radomlje in 67% and Koper in 56%, increasing the likelihood of an exchange of goals. Considering Koper’s low clean sheet expected away (7%), the high seasonal BTTS 67% vs 79% and Radomlje’s 11 goals conceded versus Koper’s 12 scored recently, I predict BTTS with a probability of 82%.

Radomlje scores an average of 2.27 goals per game, Koper 1.93, and their xG are 1.78 and 1.71 respectively. Averaging each side’s attacking xG with the opponent’s defensive xG (Koper xG against 1.59, Radomlje xG against 1.41) yields an estimated 1.69 goals for the home side and 1.56 for the away side, about 3.25 goals total. With lambda=3.25 the Poisson distribution gives probability for over 1.5 goals ~83.5% (rounded to 84%), over 2.5 ~63% and over 3.5 ~41%. Seasonal indicators confirm this picture: over 1.5 occurred in 80% of Radomlje’s matches and 93% of Koper’s, over 2.5 in 73% and 64% respectively, and both-teams-to-score occurred in 67% and 79% of cases. The strongest signal is over 1.5 (high seasonal rates 80%/93% and an estimated 3.25 goals), therefore the recommendation is to play Over 1.5.

Radomlje led at the break in 9 matches this season (60%) and average 1.00 goal by Half-Time with only 0.27 conceded, strongly favoring a 1-0 Half-Time score. Season-long home form shows 73% wins and an average of 2.33 points per game versus the visitors' 29% wins and 1.21 points; additionally the home xG is 1.78 versus the away 1.71, and xG against is 1.41 versus 1.59 for the visitors, indicating a slight attacking edge and superior defense for the hosts. The second Half-Time/Full-Time period often yields goals — hosts register goals in 87% of second halves and average 1.27 goals after the break — so retaining a lead at the break is realistic. However, note that in the last five matches the hosts’ form is 'lllwl' (20% wins) while the visitors are 'wldww' (60% wins), and in those five games the visitors led at the break in 60%, which increases the risk of a draw or a turnaround. As a result, the most likely scenario is HT/FT 1/1, with alternatives 1/X and X/1 having significantly lower probability.