Raja Casablanca vs CODM Meknès: match statistics

Raja Casablanca are clear favorites: at home they concede on average 0.38 goals per match and keep a clean sheet in 62% of games, while CODM Meknès concede on the road 1.33 goals on average and have only 25% clean sheets. The home attack averages 1.23 goals per home match with xG 1.56, 4.54 shots on target and a 10% conversion rate, whereas the visitors score only 0.42 goals away with xG 1.09, 2.08 shots on target and a 4% conversion. In the last 5 matches Raja scored 6 and conceded 7, averaging 1.4 points per match, while Meknès have 5 goals and 9 conceded with 0.8 points per match, indicating weaker form and resilience from the visitors. Additionally, the hosts control 62% possession at home versus 49% possession for Meknès away, and the percentage of matches in which the visitors fail to score is 67% (vs 31% for the hosts), which increases Raja’s chance of a comfortable win. Considering the defensive advantage (0.38 vs 1.33), higher xG (1.56 vs 1.09) and significantly better efficiency, I assess the probabilities as 70% for the hosts, 18% for a draw and 12% for the visitors.

Season-long statistics point to No BTTS: Raja has a clean sheet in 54% of matches, and CODM fail to score in 67% of their games. Season BTTS rates are only 31% for Raja and 33% for CODM, both well below the league average of 51%. Raja average 0.92 goals scored and concede 0.69 per match (31-15) with xG-for 1.13 and shot conversion 10%, while CODM average 0.42 goals and 1.33 conceded per match (17-25) with xG-for 1.09 and conversion 4%, indicating very low offensive efficiency from the visitors. The only caveat is the last 5 matches, where CODM had BTTS in 80%, and the recent 5-match form shows Raja conceding 1.4 goals and CODM 1.8, which raises short-term risk of both teams on the scoresheet. Based on this, the 'No' scenario looks stronger and I estimate its probability at 75% versus 25% for 'BTTS - Yes'.

I expect around 2.30 goals in total: Raja ~1.25, CODM ~1.05. The basis is xG: home xG 1.13, away xG 1.09; comparing with xG against (1.32 for CODM, 1.39 for Raja) yields a baseline of ~1.23–1.24 per team, which I lower for CODM due to a low shot conversion rate of 4% and a seasonal goals average of 0.42. Seasonal percentages confirm a low risk of a high-scoring game — Over 2.5 only 23% for Raja and 25% for CODM, Over 3.5 just 8% for both teams, while Under 3.5 occurs in 92% of matches. Raja at home records 54% clean sheets and concedes on average 3.0 shots on target versus 2.08 for the visitors; in the last 5 matches Raja scored 6 and conceded 7, CODM scored 5 and conceded 9, so the scoring tempo is moderate relative to the league average of 2.15. Therefore I pick Under 3.5 as the strongest signal (≈80%), with Over 1.5 rated at ~67% and Over 2.5 at ~40%.

At half-time the most common state is a draw — Raja led at the break in 15% of matches, while a draw occurred in 62% of the hosts’ games (clean sheet at half-time 77%), so the HT is most likely to be level. In full time the hosts have a clear advantage: Raja win 54% of home matches versus CODM’s 8% as visitors, with average goals scored 0.92 versus 0.42. After the break Raja more frequently decide matches in their favor — they average 0.62 goals in the second half versus 0.33 for CODM, scored 4 goals in minutes 46–60 compared to 1 for the visitors, and have 1.54 points gained after the break versus 0.75 for CODM. Additionally Raja’s chances-to-goals conversion rate is 10% versus 4% for the visitors, therefore the most probable scenario is a draw at half-time and a home win at full-time (X/1).