Rajasthan United vs Chanmari: match statistics

Rajasthan United have a clear seasonal advantage at home: in home matches they average 1.29 goals scored, 0.86 goals conceded per game, xG 1.81, an average of 15.57 shots of which 5 are on target, with 43% of home games ending in a clean sheet and a 57% win rate. Chanmari are weaker defensively away — conceding 2.29 goals per game on average, 0% clean sheets and a 71% share of losses on the road, with away xG 1.32 and an average of 9.71 shots per match. In the short term the visitors look slightly better: in the last 5 matches Chanmari scored 7 goals and average 1.2 points per game, whereas Rajasthan in their last 5 have 1 win, scored 7 goals but conceded 13 and average 0.6 points per game. Quality-of-chances analysis shows a home advantage — xG 1.81 vs 1.32 and a clear superiority in shots (15.57 vs 9.71) suggest Rajasthan create more and better opportunities, while Chanmari rely on higher conversion (15% vs 8%) on fewer attempts. Considering the seasonal stability of the home defence (0.86 goals conceded per game and +3 home goal difference) and the visitors’ defensive frailty away (2.29 goals conceded per game and -6 goal difference), I assign a higher probability to the home win.

The "BTTS - Yes" scenario appears more likely: seasonal BTTS rates are 50% for Rajasthan United and 71% for Chanmari, compared to a league average of 63%. Notably, Chanmari have recorded zero clean sheets (0%) and concede on average 2.29 goals per game, while Rajasthan have conceded 13 goals in their last 5 matches (2.6 per game), increasing the probability of goals from both sides. xG analysis shows Rajasthan with xG 1.52 vs xG against 1.42, and Chanmari with xG 1.32 vs xG against 1.54 — combined xG_for is ~2.84, indicating a realistic potential of around 2.8 goals in the match. Additionally, Chanmari have 86% of matches over 2.5 goals and 71% of games combining over 2.5 and BTTS, while Rajasthan have 80% BTTS in their last 5 matches (4/5). Based on these specific figures, I recommend a BTTS = Yes bet.

Based on xG: Rajasthan United’s attack has xG 1.52 and Chanmari’s defense xG against 1.54 — the average yields an expected 1.53 goals for the home side; conversely Chanmari’s attack xG is 1.32 and the home defense xG against 1.42, giving an expected 1.37 for the away team, total = 2.90. Seasonal rates show the home side have 83% of matches with over 1.5 goals, the away side 100%, which strongly supports Over 1.5, whereas at the 2.5 line homes have 33% and away 86% — signals are mixed for Over 2.5. In the last 5 matches homes have 80% Over 2.5, scored 7 and conceded 13 goals (2.6 conceded on average), away have 60% Over 2.5, scored 7 and conceded 9 (1.8 avg) — this increases the likelihood of a higher goal count. Attacking stats: hosts average 11.67 shots with 4.5 on target (conversion rate 10%), away 9.71 with 3.57 on target (conversion 15%), indicating more chances for the hosts with higher efficiency from the visitors. A Poisson model for the expected total of 2.90 gives roughly 79% probability for Over 1.5, about 55% for Over 2.5 and around 33% for Over 3.5; therefore the strongest signal is to play Over 1.5.

Rajasthan United hold a slight xG advantage (1.52 vs 1.32) and a better points return at home (1.5 pts/match vs Chanmari’s 0.86 pts/match), while the visitors concede an average of 2.29 goals per game. The hosts led at the break in 3 of 6 matches (50%) and score 0.67 goals on average in the first half while conceding just 0.33, whereas the visitors concede 1.86 goals on average after the break. Additionally, the home side average 4.5 shots on target versus the visitors’ 3.57 and collect 1.17 points on average after the interval compared to the visitors’ 0.71, which increases the likelihood of them maintaining a lead at the break. Although the hosts have a high share of home draws (50%), the visitors lose away in 71% of matches, so the strongest signal from the data points to the home team leading at half-time and winning the match (1/1).