Raków Częstochowa II vs Stilon Gorzów: match statistics

Stilon Gorzów are showing a clearly better run of form: they have won 4 of their last 5 matches, while Raków Częstochowa II have recorded 3 wins and 2 defeats during the same period. The visitors have conceded just 4 goals in their last five games, compared with 8 for the hosts, indicating greater defensive stability for Stilon. However, Raków have the edge in chance creation at home, averaging 1.56 xG and 15 shots per match, compared with Stilon’s modest 0.76 xG and 3 shots away from home. The hosts’ main issue is finishing: they failed to score in their home league match despite averaging 57% possession and 4 shots on target, whereas the visitors have not been held scoreless in an away fixture. Both teams have lost their only match so far in the respective home and away role, but better form and more effective chance conversion give Stilon a slight edge.

Both teams had a BTTS rate of 100% in the current season data, and neither kept a clean sheet, which strongly supports goals at both ends. Raków II average 3.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded at home, while Stilon score 1.0 goal and concede 2.0 away from home. In their last five matches, the hosts averaged 3.2 goals scored and 1.6 conceded, while the visitors recorded 2.0 goals scored and only 0.8 conceded, giving Stilon a solid basis to respond to their opponents’ strong attack. Raków II’s latest xG also stands at 1.74, with an average xG conceded of 1.32, while Stilon generate 0.98 xG, increasing the likelihood of them scoring at least once. Despite the visitors’ stronger recent defence, both teams have a 60% BTTS rate across their last five matches, making BTTS - Yes the more likely outcome.

Raków II have averaged 3.2 goals scored over their last 5 matches, while Stilon have averaged 2.0 goals per game during the same period. However, the hosts have conceded 1.6 goals per match, giving the visitors a realistic chance of scoring despite their average xG of 0.98. The teams’ recent matches finished Over 2.5 goals in 80% and 60% of cases, respectively, compared with a league average of 3.14 goals per game. Additionally, both teams have scored and conceded at least one goal in every match played so far this season, which clearly strengthens the case for a minimum of two goals. The safest choice is Over 1.5 goals, as the projected total of 3.20 goals provides a substantial margin above this line.

Stilon starts matches very strongly: in each of their last five games, they were leading at the break, scoring an average of 1.0 goal before half-time and conceding none. Raków II also possess significant attacking potential, averaging 1.5 goals in the first half and 1.5 after the interval across their last five matches, while winning 3 of those 5 games. The key signal for a turnaround is Stilon’s second-half performance: in this sample, the visitors failed to score after half-time and conceded an average of 2.0 goals, losing the second half in 100% of their matches. The home side score an average of 3.0 goals per game at home, while Stilon concede an average of 2.0 away from home; therefore, the most likely HT/FT outcome is an initial lead for the visitors followed by a final victory for Raków II, represented by X/2.