Raków Częstochowa II vs Warta Gorzów: match statistics

Raków Częstochowa II have had the better of their last five matches, picking up 8 points and conceding 4 goals, while Warta Gorzów have earned 5 points and conceded 7. The hosts’ chance creation at home works in their favour: their average xG is 1.60, while Warta allow opponents chances worth an average xG of 2.27 away from home. The visitors concede an average of 2.17 goals on the road, giving Raków a chance to break through despite scoring just 0.5 goals per home match on average. The pick on the hosts remains cautious, however: they are yet to win at home, while Warta average 1.17 goals scored away and Raków concede 1.5 per match on home soil.

It is slightly more likely that both teams will score: each side has seen this happen in 60% of its last 5 matches. Warta concede an average of 2.17 goals, while opponents create chances worth 2.27 xG against them, giving Raków a chance despite scoring just 0.67 goals on average. The visitors score an average of 1.17 goals per match and have yet to fail to score, although Raków keep a clean sheet in 33% of matches. This is not a strong pick, as Raków have failed to score in 50% of their matches, and their season-long rate of matches in which both teams score is only 33%, compared with Warta’s 83%.

The strongest pick is Under 3.5 goals: this line has not been breached in any of Raków II’s matches, while Over 2.5 goals landed in 40% and 20% of the two teams’ last five matches, respectively. Warta concede an average of 2.17 goals per match, but Raków II score only 0.67, which limits confidence in a high-scoring game. Meanwhile, Warta average 1.17 goals scored and Raków II concede 0.83, so the visitors’ contribution could also remain modest. Although Warta have gone Over 3.5 goals in 50% of their matches, the projected total of 2.40 goals suggests Under 3.5 is a safer pick than betting on lower goal lines.

The strongest signal in favor of Raków II leading at the break comes from the last five matches: the hosts led after 45 minutes in three of them and did not concede a first-half goal in any of those games. Over the same period, Warta were trailing at half-time in two of five matches, and their average xG of 0.97 compared with Raków II’s 1.35 further strengthens the hosts’ advantage. The case for them holding on to their lead is supported by the visitors’ defensive record: they concede an average of 2.17 goals per match, including 1.6 after the break, while the hosts concede 0.83 per match. Raków II averaged 1.6 points across their last five matches compared with Warta’s 1.0, so the scenario of the hosts leading at half-time and winning at full-time is my highest-rated HT/FT outcome. The risk to this selection is a half-time draw: across the full available sample, Raków II were level at the break in 50% of matches, making X/1 a significant alternative.