Raków Częstochowa vs Cracovia Kraków: match statistics

I predict a Raków Częstochowa win (1). The hosts have a clear advantage in quality of chances: average xG at home is 1.61 versus 1.28 xG for Cracovia away, and average shots 13.69 (3.92 on target) vs 11.14 (3.36 on target) in favor of Raków. Defensively Raków also performs better — they concede an average of 0.92 goals per home match versus 1.29 conceded by Cracovia on the road, and the share of clean-sheet matches is 23% for Raków and 43% for Cracovia. Both teams are on a poor run (averaging 0.8 points in the last 5 matches), but Raków has scored 8 goals in that period (0 wins, 4 draws, 1 loss), while Cracovia only 4 goals (1 win, 1 draw, 3 losses). Considering the higher xG, better shot production and lower risk of failing to score for Raków, I give the hosts a higher probability of victory with a moderate chance of a draw.

I predict both teams to score in this match (BTTS - Yes) with a probability of 66%, while the No Goal scenario has a 34% probability. The league BTTS rate is 57%; Raków has a seasonal BTTS of 57% versus Cracovia's 36%, favoring both teams to score. In the last 5 matches Raków had BTTS 100%, scoring 8 and conceding 9 goals (avg. 1.6 scored, 1.8 conceded), whereas Cracovia in the last 5 had BTTS 40%, scoring 4 and conceding 8 (avg. 0.8 and 1.6). Additionally, xG and shot counts indicate both sides create chances: Raków xG_for 1.56 vs Cracovia xG_against 1.55, and Cracovia xG_for 1.28 vs Raków xG_against 1.29; Raków averages 13.29 shots with 3.86 on target, Cracovia 11.14 with 3.36 on target, with conversion rates of 10% and 9%. Despite seasonal 43% clean sheets for both teams, the higher recent goal rates and league BTTS 57% lead me to back BTTS - Yes.

The combined expected xG for both teams is 1.56 (Raków) + 1.29 (Cracovia) = 2.85, translating to an expected 2.85 goals in the match. Raków have 71% of home matches with over 1.5 goals, Cracovia have 57% away, and the league average is 2.72 goals per match — these indicators support at least two goals in the game. A Poisson model with lambda=2.85 yields probabilities of roughly 78% for Over 1.5 goals, 54% for Over 2.5 goals and 32% for Over 3.5 goals, consistent with seasonal rates (Raków Over 3.5 29%, Cracovia 14%). Raków score 1.36 goals at home on average and register 13.29 shots per game with xG 1.56, while Cracovia have xG 1.28 and concede 1.29 xG, suggesting both sides can create scoring opportunities. Given the strong signals from xG, shot numbers and seasonal over percentages, I recommend betting Over 1.5 goals as the safest and strongest option.

Raków often draws at the break: they led at half-time in 4 matches (29%), drew at half-time in 71% of games and have 79% clean sheets by half-time, so the most likely HT state is a draw (probably 0:0). After the break the home side are more dangerous — they average 0.86 goals in the second half versus Cracovia’s 0.5, and 86% of Raków’s matches feature at least one goal after half-time. In the final stages Raków have a clear edge: between minutes 76–90 they scored 6 goals versus Cracovia’s 1, suggesting decisive goals more often occur after the 75th minute. Additionally xG indicates Raków’s superiority: xG_for 1.56 vs 1.28 for Cracovia, with xG_against 1.29 vs 1.55, meaning Raków creates better chances and concedes fewer high-quality opportunities. For these reasons the Half-Time/Full-Time scenario draw at half-time and home win (X/1) is the strongest signal and I assign it the highest probability.