Rapid Wien II vs First Vienna: match statistics

First Vienna sit 3rd, while Rapid Wien II are only 12th. The visitors’ overall season record stands at 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, compared with the hosts’ 2 wins and 3 defeats. The visitors have also been clearly more effective over the last five matchdays: they have scored 9 goals and collected 10 points, whereas Rapid have netted 6 goals and suffered 3 defeats. A key factor is Rapid Wien II’s poor home form, having lost both matches, averaging just 0.5 goals scored and 2.5 conceded per game. First Vienna have not failed to score away from home, while their 11% shooting accuracy is more than twice as high as the hosts’ 5%. Although Rapid enjoy more possession, 52% to 44%, the visitors are in better form and should be better positioned to capitalize on their opponents’ defensive mistakes.

The BTTS signal is inconclusive, but it leans slightly more toward at least one team failing to score. Rapid Wien II concede just 0.67 goals on average at home, keep a clean sheet in 67% of matches, and allow an average xG of 0.95, while First Vienna score only 1.00 goal per away match on average. The hosts do have a very solid attacking profile — 2.33 goals and 1.69 xG per match — so the most realistic No Goal scenario is a one-sided home win rather than a goalless draw. The last five matches increase the risk of an away goal, as Rapid conceded 2.2 goals per game during that run and Vienna scored 1.8, yet the BTTS rates stand at just 33% for the hosts and 50% for the visitors, compared with 50% across the league. Rapid’s defensive quality at home marginally tips the prediction toward BTTS - No.

Rapid Wien II score an average of 2.33 goals at home, while First Vienna concede as many as 2.00 goals per away match, clearly strengthening the hosts’ attacking potential. However, Rapid have conceded 2.20 goals per game across their last five matches, while First Vienna have scored 1.80, giving the visitors a realistic chance to contribute to the total. The combined xG averages point to an open game: 1.69 for the hosts compared with 1.34 allowed by the opposition, and 1.14 for the visitors against 0.95 allowed by the hosts. Both teams have recorded Over 2.5 goals in 60% of their last five matches, while the league-wide average stands at 3.05 goals. The strongest selection is Over 1.5 goals, as the projected total of 2.90 goals provides a substantial safety margin above this line.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a First Vienna win, as the visitors were level at the break in 40% of their last five matches and had not been trailing at half-time in either of their two away fixtures so far. First Vienna are in clearly better current form: they have averaged 2.0 points per match over their last five appearances, won 60% of them, and conceded just 1.2 goals per game, while Rapid Wien II lost 60% of their matches and conceded 2.2 goals per game. The visitors’ advantage is particularly evident after the break, as they average 1.2 goals in the second half across their last five matches, whereas the hosts concede as many as 1.4 goals during that period. Seasonal home data still partly favour Rapid, who score 2.33 goals per home match, but their recent output has fallen to 1.2 goals, which limits the credibility of a scenario involving a home lead. First Vienna also have the better results trend, with three consecutive wins in their last five matches, making an even opening and a more effective second half from the visitors the most likely outcome.