Ravenna vs Vis Pesaro: match statistics

Ravenna is the favorite at home: they win 76% of home matches, keep 59% clean sheets and concede just 0.65 goals per game on average, indicating a very solid defense. Offensively the hosts average 12.82 shots per match (4.24 on target) and have an xG of 1.57, while Vis Pesaro on the road averages 9.41 shots (2.94 on target) and xG 1.25, so Ravenna creates more and better scoring opportunities. Vis Pesaro away has only 24% wins, 41% draws and 35% losses, scores 1.06 goals on average, records 29% of matches without a goal and has an xG against of 1.68, which suggests issues generating advantages on the road. In the last five games Ravenna scored 8 goals, won 4 of 5 and collects 2.6 points per match on average, while Vis has 5 goals and 1.4 points per match, confirming the hosts' better form. Considering the superiority in number and quality of shots (12.82 vs 9.41 and 4.24 vs 2.94), lower average goals conceded (0.65 vs 1.06) and higher clean sheet rate (59% vs 29%), I predict a Ravenna victory.

I predict No BTTS. Ravenna at home posts a seasonal 1.06 goals scored and 0.82 conceded, and in the last 5 matches concedes only 0.4 goals per game with 41% clean sheets, indicating a solid defence. Vis Pesaro has a seasonal BTTS of 59% and averages 1.06 goals per game, but in the last 5 matches also had BTTS only 20% and scored 1.0 goals with xG_for 1.25 and xG_against 2.17 — creating chances but not necessarily converting them. Ravenna generates 1.54 xG and 4.29 shots on target versus Vis Pesaro’s 1.25 xG and 2.94 on target, and the home side’s defensive edge (0.82 vs 1.06 conceded on the season) together with 20% BTTS in the last 5 matches for both teams supports a No BTTS scenario (approx. 70% vs 30%).

The model combining offensive and defensive xG with a seasonal conversion adjustment forecasts 1.11 goals for Ravenna and 1.19 for Vis Pesaro, i.e. a total of 2.30 goals. Specifically: Ravenna has xG_attack 1.54, Vis Pesaro concedes on average xG 1.68 (1.61 on average for home teams), conversely Vis has xG_attack 1.25 while Ravenna xG_against is 1.56 (1.405 on average for away teams); after applying seasonal goal conversion (Ravenna 1.06/1.54≈0.69, Vis 1.06/1.25≈0.85) the values of 1.11 and 1.19 were obtained. Seasonally both teams often exceed 1.5 goals: Ravenna 65% and Vis 71%, and additionally Ravenna scored on average 1.6 goals in the last 5 matches (8 goals in 5), which pushes the probability of Over 1.5 to around 76%. Over 2.5 is more balanced — seasonal over2.5 are 35% and 41% (average ~38%) and our expected 2.30 goals suggests a moderate ~40% chance of Over 2.5 (Under 60%). Over 3.5 is unlikely (seasonally 0% Ravenna and 18% Vis), therefore I recommend an Over 1.5 bet as the strongest signal.

Ravenna led at the break in 8 of 17 matches (47%) and averages 0.53 goals by half-time with just 0.24 conceded, while Vis Pesaro led at the break in 4 of 17 (24%) with 0.47 scored and 0.41 conceded. The home side generates more opportunities: xG 1.54 versus the visitors' 1.25, an average of 11.88 shots versus 9.41 and 4.29 shots on target versus 2.94, indicating Ravenna's offensive advantage. Over the season Ravenna averages 1.59 points at home versus 1.12 for Vis Pesaro, and in the last 5 matches Ravenna have won 4 of 5 (80%) while Vis Pesaro have a 40% win rate in their last 5. For these reasons the most likely scenario is Ravenna leading at the break and winning by full-time (1/1 – 35%), with realistic alternatives X/1 (16%) and X/X (12%).