Rayo Vallecano vs Athletic Club Bilbao: match statistics
Athletic Club Bilbao has demonstrated significantly better form over the last five matches, securing 2.4 points per game and winning four of those five fixtures, whereas Rayo Vallecano is in crisis with just 0.6 points per game and four defeats in their last five outings. Although Rayo holds home advantage and a positive home goal difference (+2), their high draw percentage (55%) in home games points to a struggle to convert matches into wins. Athletic boasts superior overall statistics (10 wins compared to Rayo's 6) and an advantage in expected goals (xG), indicating a higher quality of play. The visitors' form, a crucial factor here, clearly favors Athletic Club Bilbao, making them the favorites despite their struggles on the road. The predicted outcome is an away win, approached with caution due to Rayo's resilience at home.
Rayo Vallecano vs Athletic Club Bilbao: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Rayo Vallecano played Athletic Club Bilbao in La Liga (Spain). The match was played on 28 February 2026. Final score: 1:1.
Current form
Rayo Vallecano: 1-1-3, 0.80 points/match. Athletic Club Bilbao: 3-1-1, 2.00 points/match.
Goal statistics
Rayo Vallecano scores 0.92 and concedes 1.29 goals per match. Athletic Club Bilbao scores 1.16 and concedes 1.40. League average: 2.66 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Rayo Vallecano 42%, Athletic Club Bilbao 52%. Over 2.5: Rayo Vallecano 42%, Athletic Club Bilbao 48%. League level: BTTS 55%, Over 2.5 50%.
xG, shots and style
Athletic Club Bilbao has higher xG: 1.63 vs 1.49. Rayo Vallecano: 13.3 shots per match, Athletic Club Bilbao: 14.5.
Match halves
Rayo Vallecano: half-time lead 25%, second-half goals 0.38. Athletic Club Bilbao: half-time lead 20%, second-half goals 0.64.
Goals by minute
Rayo Vallecano: 31-45+ (8 goals). Athletic Club Bilbao: 76-90+ (9 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
La Liga: 2.66 goals per match, BTTS 55%, Over 2.5 50%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 0-0-1. Average goals 1.00, BTTS 0%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Athletic Club Bilbao has demonstrated significantly better form over the last five matches, securing 2.4 points per game and winning four of those five fixtures, whereas Rayo Vallecano is in crisis with just 0.6 points per game and four defeats in their last five outings. Although Rayo holds home advantage and a positive home goal difference (+2), their high draw percentage (55%) in home games points to a struggle to convert matches into wins. Athletic boasts superior overall statistics (10 wins compared to Rayo's 6) and an advantage in expected goals (xG), indicating a higher quality of play. The visitors' form, a crucial factor here, clearly favors Athletic Club Bilbao, making them the favorites despite their struggles on the road. The predicted outcome is an away win, approached with caution due to Rayo's resilience at home.
View the statistical overviewHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Rayo Vallecano | Athletic Club Bilbao | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 34% | 32% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Athletic Club Bilbao is 150% better for: last-5 form.
0.8 pts / match - Rayo Vallecano · 2 pts / match - Athletic Club Bilbao
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Athletic Club Bilbao is 26% better for: goals scored per match.
0.92 goals / match - Rayo Vallecano · 1.16 goals / match - Athletic Club Bilbao
Rayo Vallecano is 9% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.29 goals / match - Rayo Vallecano · 1.4 goals / match - Athletic Club Bilbao
Rayo Vallecano scores in 58% of matches (14 of 24 matches), while Athletic Club Bilbao keeps a clean sheet in 20% (5 of 25 matches).
Athletic Club Bilbao scores in 68% of matches (17 of 25 matches), while Rayo Vallecano keeps a clean sheet in 29% (7 of 24 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Rayo Vallecano
Over / Under - Athletic Club Bilbao
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Rayo Vallecano - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 25% of matches and wins 25%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.4 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Athletic Club Bilbao - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 20% of matches and wins 40%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.4 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.8 | 1.0 |
| Average goals in match | 1.4 | 1.6 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 20% | 40% |
| No goal | 60% | 40% |
| Goal difference | -1 | -2 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 1.2 | 2.2 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 40% |
| No goal | 60% | 20% |
| Goal difference | 0 | +3 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (8 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (10). Late-goal balance (76-90): -6 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (9 goals). Concedes most in 46-60 (9). Late-goal balance (76-90): +1 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Rayo Vallecano
Athletic Club Bilbao
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (La Liga).
Teams vs league
| Rayo Vallecano | Liga | Athletic Club Bilbao | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 2.21 | 2.66 | ▼ 2.56 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 42% | 55% | ▼ 52% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 42% | 50% | ▼ 48% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 29% | 25% | ▼ 20% |
| Goal before half-time | • 67% | 66% | ▼ 60% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 75% | 84% | ▲ 88% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Rayo Vallecano 0 - 0 - 1 Athletic Club Bilbao. Average goals 1.00, both teams scored in 0% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Rayo Vallecano vs Athletic Club Bilbao?
The La Liga match finished Rayo Vallecano 1:1 Athletic Club Bilbao. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Rayo Vallecano vs Athletic Club Bilbao?
Rayo Vallecano score 0.92 goals per game on average and Athletic Club Bilbao 1.16. The La Liga average is 2.66 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 50% of games. Both teams score in 42% of Rayo Vallecano's matches and 52% of Athletic Club Bilbao's.
What form are Rayo Vallecano and Athletic Club Bilbao in?
Over the last 5 games Rayo Vallecano have a 1-1-3 record (0.80 points per game) and Athletic Club Bilbao 3-1-1 (2.00 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Rayo Vallecano vs Athletic Club Bilbao?
The statistical background for Rayo Vallecano vs Athletic Club Bilbao — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.