RB Leipzig vs Mainz 05: match statistics
RB Leipzig displays impressive home form with a 78% win rate and an average of 2.44 goals per match at home, conceding only 1.22 goals. Mainz 05 has very poor away results – only 11% wins and as high as 56% losses, without keeping a single clean sheet. The visitors concede an average of 2.11 goals in away matches, which, when confronted with Leipzig's offensive strength (averaging 17.56 shots per match at home), puts them in a difficult situation. The difference in expected goals (xG) is clear – Leipzig generates 1.93 xG in home matches compared to Mainz's 1.13 xG away. Additionally, the goal difference of both teams (+11 for Leipzig at home vs -8 for Mainz away) and their table position (4th place vs 16th place) unequivocally indicate the hosts' advantage.
RB Leipzig vs Mainz 05: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
RB Leipzig played Mainz 05 in Bundesliga (Germany). The match was played on 31 January 2026. Final score: 1:2.
Current form
RB Leipzig: 2-1-2, 1.40 points/match. Mainz 05: 2-2-1, 1.60 points/match.
Goal statistics
RB Leipzig scores 1.95 and concedes 1.32 goals per match. Mainz 05 scores 1.11 and concedes 1.68. League average: 3.20 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: RB Leipzig 47%, Mainz 05 58%. Over 2.5: RB Leipzig 58%, Mainz 05 53%. League level: BTTS 57%, Over 2.5 63%.
xG, shots and style
RB Leipzig has higher xG: 1.75 vs 1.33. RB Leipzig: 16.1 shots per match, Mainz 05: 11.3.
Match halves
RB Leipzig: half-time lead 42%, second-half goals 1.05. Mainz 05: half-time lead 26%, second-half goals 0.63.
Goals by minute
RB Leipzig: 46-60 (9 goals). Mainz 05: 61-75 (6 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Bundesliga: 3.20 goals per match, BTTS 57%, Over 2.5 63%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 1-0-0. Average goals 1.00, BTTS 0%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
RB Leipzig displays impressive home form with a 78% win rate and an average of 2.44 goals per match at home, conceding only 1.22 goals. Mainz 05 has very poor away results – only 11% wins and as high as 56% losses, without keeping a single clean sheet. The visitors concede an average of 2.11 goals in away matches, which, when confronted with Leipzig's offensive strength (averaging 17.56 shots per match at home), puts them in a difficult situation. The difference in expected goals (xG) is clear – Leipzig generates 1.93 xG in home matches compared to Mainz's 1.13 xG away. Additionally, the goal difference of both teams (+11 for Leipzig at home vs -8 for Mainz away) and their table position (4th place vs 16th place) unequivocally indicate the hosts' advantage.
View the statistical overviewHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| RB Leipzig | Mainz 05 | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 36% | 30% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.11 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.34 | 0.32 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Mainz 05 is 14% better for: last-5 form.
1.4 pts / match - RB Leipzig · 1.6 pts / match - Mainz 05
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
RB Leipzig is 76% better for: goals scored per match.
1.95 goals / match - RB Leipzig · 1.11 goals / match - Mainz 05
RB Leipzig is 27% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.32 goals / match - RB Leipzig · 1.68 goals / match - Mainz 05
RB Leipzig scores in 89% of matches (17 of 19 matches), while Mainz 05 keeps a clean sheet in 5% (1 of 19 matches).
Mainz 05 scores in 58% of matches (11 of 19 matches), while RB Leipzig keeps a clean sheet in 47% (9 of 19 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - RB Leipzig
Over / Under - Mainz 05
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
RB Leipzig is 51% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.68 pts / match - RB Leipzig · 1.11 pts / match - Mainz 05
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
RB Leipzig - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 42% of matches and wins 58%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.4 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Mainz 05 - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 26% of matches and wins 16%. Sometimes loses the lead after half-time.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 1.4 |
| Average goals in match | 0.8 | 2.6 |
| 1 goal | 40% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 80% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 40% |
| No goal | 60% | 40% |
| Goal difference | 0 | -1 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.2 | 1.0 |
| Average goals in match | 0.8 | 2.0 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 0% | 80% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 40% |
| No goal | 40% | 40% |
| Goal difference | +2 | 0 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 46-60 (9 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (8). Late-goal balance (76-90): -5 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 61-75 (6 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (11). Late-goal balance (76-90): -7 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
RB Leipzig
Mainz 05
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Bundesliga).
Teams vs league
| RB Leipzig | Liga | Mainz 05 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | • 3.26 | 3.20 | ▼ 2.79 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 47% | 57% | • 58% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 58% | 63% | ▼ 53% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 47% | 24% | ▼ 5% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 63% | 77% | ▲ 79% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 74% | 81% | ▲ 84% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: RB Leipzig 1 - 0 - 0 Mainz 05. Average goals 1.00, both teams scored in 0% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of RB Leipzig vs Mainz 05?
The Bundesliga match finished RB Leipzig 1:2 Mainz 05. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before RB Leipzig vs Mainz 05?
RB Leipzig score 1.95 goals per game on average and Mainz 05 1.11. The Bundesliga average is 3.20 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 63% of games. Both teams score in 47% of RB Leipzig's matches and 58% of Mainz 05's.
What form are RB Leipzig and Mainz 05 in?
Over the last 5 games RB Leipzig have a 2-1-2 record (1.40 points per game) and Mainz 05 2-2-1 (1.60 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for RB Leipzig vs Mainz 05?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for RB Leipzig vs Mainz 05: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.