RCD Mallorca vs Cádiz: match statistics

Mallorca are the favourites: they have won 4 of their 5 home matches, while Cádiz are still without an away win. The hosts average 2 goals scored and just 0.4 conceded at home, while the visitors score 1.25 and concede 2 goals per away match. Mallorca’s advantage is also reflected in chance quality: their home xG stands at 1.45, compared with Cádiz’s away xG of 1.00, and they average 4.8 shots on target to their opponents’ 2.75. Their form over the last five matches overall warrants some caution—Mallorca have won just once and Cádiz twice—but the clear contrast between their home and away records favours the hosts.

BTTS - Yes has landed in 75% of Cádiz’s matches, and the team has yet to keep a clean sheet, increasing the likelihood of Mallorca scoring. The hosts average 1.29 goals per match, while the visitors concede 2.00, so Mallorca’s attack should find opportunities. Cádiz average 1.25 goals, and Mallorca keep a clean sheet in 29% of their matches, leaving the visitors with a realistic chance of scoring. However, the signal is not clear-cut: Mallorca failed to score in 43% of matches, and BTTS - Yes landed in only 43% of their games. Even so, Cádiz’s defensive record and 75% BTTS rate give a slight edge to the “Yes” pick.

The strongest signal points to at least 2 goals: every Cádiz match so far has featured a minimum of 2 goals, while the visitors concede an average of 2.0 goals per game. Mallorca score an average of 1.29 goals at home, with an xG of 1.37; against a Cádiz defence that allows an average of 1.44 xG, the hosts have a realistic chance of finding the net. The visitors score an average of 1.25 goals, although Mallorca concede just 0.86 goals at home, so a very high-scoring game is not expected. Caution on higher lines is also warranted by the fact that Over 2.5 goals landed in only 20% of Mallorca’s last 5 matches. Over 1.5 goals therefore combines the clear signal from Cádiz’s matches with less risk than backing at least 3 goals.

A draw at half-time is the most likely starting point: Mallorca were level at the break in 57% of their home matches, while Cádiz did so in 50% of their away games. Both teams score relatively little before half-time—0.29 and 0.25 goals per match, respectively—which further points to an evenly balanced opening. Mallorca could gain the advantage after the break: at home, they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.29 conceded in the second half, while Cádiz concede 1.00 goals in the second half away from home. The hosts also average 13.00 shots compared with the visitors’ 8.25, and their xG stands at 1.37 versus Cádiz’s 1.00. As a result, a draw at half-time followed by a Mallorca win is the strongest single HT/FT scenario. There is still considerable risk, as Cádiz have averaged 1.60 goals after the break over their last five matches, so a home win is far from assured.