RCD Mallorca vs Ceuta: match statistics

RCD Mallorca come into this match in clearly better form: they have won 3 of their last 5 fixtures, scoring 10 goals in the process, while Ceuta have suffered 3 defeats and conceded 10 goals. At home, Mallorca have won 100% of their matches so far, averaging 2 goals scored and having yet to concede. Ceuta have lost every away match, conceding an average of 5 goals per game, while their average xG against is as high as 2.78. The hosts also create more danger, averaging 7 shots and 3 on target compared with 5 and 1 respectively for the visitors, while also posting higher xG: 0.98 to 0.57. The difference in defensive organisation, chance-creation quality and home advantage strongly points to a Mallorca victory.

BTTS - No is slightly preferred because Mallorca have yet to score in the season data, while Ceuta, despite averaging 1.0 goal per match, record just 0.57 xG and only 1 shot on target per game. The hosts create significantly more chances, averaging 1.86 xG, 19 shots and 4 shots on target, while Ceuta’s defence allows opponents 2.78 xG. This substantially increases the likelihood of a Mallorca goal, but does not provide equally strong evidence for the visitors to score. BTTS occurred in 40% of Mallorca’s and 60% of Ceuta’s last five matches, compared with a league average of just 41%. Ceuta conceded 2.0 goals per match across their last five outings, while Mallorca conceded 1.0, making a home win with at least one team failing to score the most likely scenario.

In their last five matches, Mallorca averaged 2.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded, while Ceuta scored 1.0 and conceded 2.0 goals per game. The combined record for both teams over this period amounts to 3.0 goals per match, but games featuring at least three goals accounted for only 40% of Mallorca’s recent fixtures and 60% of Ceuta’s. The hosts’ attacking potential is supported by an average xG of 1.42, compared with Ceuta’s 1.46 xG conceded, while the visitors generate just 1.07 xG—exactly the same as Mallorca allows on average. The projected total of 2.60 goals is above the league average of 2.27, but still clearly below four goals, which is why Under 3.5 has the strongest support in the data.

Mallorca has a clear advantage in terms of chance quality: their average xG stands at 1.86, while Ceuta generate just 0.57 xG, and the visitors’ defence allows an average of 2.78 xG. The hosts average 19 shots, including 4 on target, compared with just 5 attempts and 1 shot on target for Ceuta, supporting the scenario of Mallorca taking control early. In their last five matches, Mallorca led at the break in 40% of games and scored an average of 1.2 goals after half-time, while Ceuta were trailing after 45 minutes in 40% of their appearances. The final result form also favours the hosts: Mallorca have won 3 of their last 5 matches, while Ceuta have suffered 3 defeats over the same period. The most likely outcome is therefore Mallorca leading at half-time and securing the win at the final whistle.