Real Garcilaso vs Alianza Atlético: match statistics

Real Garcilaso has a clear home advantage: at home they win 63% of matches, score on average 1.38 goals per game with an average xG of 1.62 and have 0% clean-sheet failures, while Alianza Atlético win only 22% of away games, score 1.00 goal on average and have 22% of matches without a goal. Defensively the hosts are stronger — Real concedes 0.75 goals per home match and has 38% clean sheets, whereas the visitors concede 1.44 goals away and have only 11% clean sheets. In chance creation Real averages 15.5 shots (5.25 on target) with a 9% conversion rate, versus 13.44 shots (4.89 on target) and 7% conversion for Alianza; combined with an xG advantage of 1.62 vs 1.4 this indicates higher-quality chances for the hosts. At the same time, in the last 5 matches Real scored 5 and conceded 8, collecting an average of 1.2 points per game, while Alianza has 4 goals and 1.0 point on average in that period, showing both teams are in moderate form. Considering the possession advantage (62% vs 43%), better home defensive metrics and Real’s zero rate of matches without scoring, I predict a home win as the most likely outcome.

Real Garcilaso at home averages 1.38 goals scored and concedes only 0.63 goals per match, and in 50% of home games keeps a clean sheet — a strong signal against BTTS. Alianza Atlético, on the other hand, has a seasonal BTTS rate of 67% and averages 1.00 goals scored with 1.44 conceded, increasing their probability to score in the match. However, in the last 5 matches the hosts conceded on average 1.6 goals (vs season 0.63), while the visitors averaged 0.8 goals in their last 5; both teams have 40% BTTS in their last five matches, so form is mixed. Additionally Real generates xG 1.54 and 5.38 shots on target versus Alianza’s xG 1.40 and 4.89 shots on target, and the hosts’ shot conversion is 10% versus 7% for the visitors, giving Real a slight edge in chance creation and finishing. Overall the key factors are Real’s high clean sheet rate (50%) versus the opponents’ high BTTS (67%) and the league BTTS level of 56%, therefore I forecast No BTTS as more likely (btts_pred_no 60%, btts_pred_yes 40%).

Based on xG: Real Garcilaso has xG_for 1.54 and Alianza Atlético xG_against 1.43, yielding expected home goals of ~1.49; conversely Alianza has xG_for 1.40 and Real xG_against 1.11, so expected away goals are ~1.26, total ~2.75 goals. Seasonally Real’s matches exceeded 1.5 goals in 50% of cases, Alianza in 78% — average 64%, therefore I rate Over 1.5 at 64%. For the 2.5 line seasonally Real has 38% Over, Alianza 44% (avg 41%), while in the last 5 matches Real has 60% Over 2.5 and Alianza only 20%, hence my conservative estimation for Over 2.5 is 41% (Under 59%). The strongest signal is Under 3.5: seasonally Real has 75% of matches below 3.5, Alianza 78% — average 76%, and with expected 2.75 goals, 50% clean sheets for Real and lower opponent shot conversion (7% vs 10%) Under 3.5 has a clear edge, so I recommend Under 3.5 as the best pick.

At half-time I expect a draw: hosts lead at the break in 25% of matches and are level at half-time in 63%, visitors lead in 22% and are level in 44%. The average first-half goals are 0.63 (Real Garcilaso) + 0.33 (Alianza) ≈ 0.96, which favors a low-scoring draw at HT. After the break the hosts typically improve — in second halves they average 1.88 points versus 1.33 for the visitors, with 50% of second-half wins compared to 33% for the opponents, scoring on average 0.75 goals after the break while conceding only 0.25. The full match also favors Real Garcilaso: average goals scored 1.38 vs 1.00, average conceded 0.63 vs 1.44 and average points per match 1.63 vs 0.89, indicating a clear home advantage through FT. Therefore the most likely scenario is a Half-Time draw and a home win at Full-Time (X/1) — I estimate this at 36%, followed by X/X 18% and 1/1 12%, with other outcomes considered less likely.