Real Madrid vs Real Sociedad: match statistics

Real Madrid are in excellent form: they have won 4 of their last five matches, drawn once, scored 12 goals and conceded just 5. Real Sociedad, meanwhile, have lost 4 of their last 5 games, with a 7:10 goal difference during that period, clearly highlighting their lack of consistency at both ends of the pitch. The visitors lost their only away match so far, failed to score and allowed their opponents chances worth an average of 1.95 xG. Although Real Sociedad generate an average of 1.13 xG away from home, their lack of cutting edge and failure to keep clean sheets point to a home advantage. The difference in recent form—2.6 points per match for Real Madrid compared with 0.6 for Real Sociedad—identifies the hosts as clear favourites.

The BTTS signal is based primarily on recent form: Real Madrid had both teams scoring in 60% of their previous five matches, while Real Sociedad did so in as many as 80%. The hosts averaged 2.4 goals scored during this period, compared with 1.4 for the visitors, indicating that both sides possess genuine attacking potential. However, Real Sociedad conceded an average of 2.0 goals per match in their last five games, while Real Madrid conceded 1.0, making a home goal particularly likely. Real Madrid’s xG stands at 1.54 and Sociedad’s at 1.02, while the hosts allow opponents an xG of 1.05, giving the visitors a strong argument for scoring at least once. Although Sociedad’s form shows four defeats in five matches, their 7 goals scored, combined with the defensive problems affecting both teams recently, slightly strengthens the scenario in which both teams find the net — BTTS - Yes / Goal/Goal.

The strongest pick is Over 1.5 goals, as Real’s last five matches produced an average of 3.4 goals: the hosts scored 2.4 and conceded 1.0 per game. Real Sociedad recorded matches averaging 3.4 goals over the same period, conceding as many as 2.0 goals per game. The 2.5 line was surpassed in 80% of the last five matches involving both teams, clearly supporting the scenario of at least two goals. Real’s attack generated an xG of 1.54, while Sociedad allowed opponents an xG of 1.14, with the visitors additionally conceding 10 goals in five matches. The projected total of 2.95 goals gives an edge to Over 1.5, although the margin is significantly smaller at the 2.5 line.

Real Madrid have won 4 of their last 5 matches, scoring an average of 2.4 goals and conceding just 1.0, while Real Sociedad have lost 4 of their last 5 fixtures, averaging 1.4 goals scored and 2.0 conceded. The hosts were leading at the break in each of their last five appearances, with an average of 1.6 goals scored and 0.4 conceded before half-time. Sociedad were level at half-time in as many as 80% of those matches, but their first-half figures stood at 0.8 goals scored compared with 1.0 conceded, clearly favouring a Real advantage. After the interval, the hosts still look more consistent: they score an average of 0.8 goals, while the visitors concede 1.0 and lost the second half in 60% of their recent matches. The most likely scenario is therefore Real Madrid taking the lead before half-time and holding on to it until the final whistle.