Real Monarchs vs Sporting KC II: match statistics
Real Monarchs vs Sporting KC II: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Real Monarchs played Sporting KC II in MLS Next Pro (United States). The match was played on 30 May 2026. Final score: 1:3.
Current form
Real Monarchs: 2-1-2, 1.40 points/match. Sporting KC II: 1-1-3, 0.80 points/match.
Goal statistics
Real Monarchs scores 1.73 and concedes 1.55 goals per match. Sporting KC II scores 1.07 and concedes 2.64. League average: 3.22 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Real Monarchs 55%, Sporting KC II 57%. Over 2.5: Real Monarchs 64%, Sporting KC II 79%. League level: BTTS 62%, Over 2.5 66%.
xG, shots and style
Real Monarchs has higher xG: 1.59 vs 1.49. Real Monarchs: 13.8 shots per match, Sporting KC II: 13.3.
Match halves
Real Monarchs: half-time lead 45%, second-half goals 0.91. Sporting KC II: half-time lead 7%, second-half goals 0.64.
Goals by minute
Real Monarchs: 46-60 (5 goals). Sporting KC II: 76-90+ (6 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
MLS Next Pro: 3.22 goals per match, BTTS 62%, Over 2.5 66%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 2 previous H2H matches were available: 1-0-1. Average goals 4.00, BTTS 50%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Real Monarchs are the favorites for this match: at home they concede on average 1.57 goals per game, while Sporting KC II concede as many as 2.8 goals away. In the last 5 matches the hosts conceded 8 goals (1.6/game) versus 13 conceded by the visitors (2.6/game). Although Sporting KC II score 1.6 goals away compared to Real’s 1.43 at home, the average xG is similar (1.66 for Real vs 1.7 for Sporting), indicating that the visitors’ weaker defense translates into higher actual goals conceded. Additionally, Real have superior home possession (56% vs 48%) and better recent form over the last 5 matches (1.4 points per game vs 0.8 for the opponents), while Sporting have no clean sheets on the road (0%). Considering the visitors’ worse away goal difference (-6 vs -1 for Real) and Real’s high home draw rate (43%), I assign greater chances to the hosts, though a draw remains a realistic outcome.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
The forecast favors BTTS - Yes: Sporting KC II posts a season BTTS rate of 80% versus Real Monarchs' 44% (league average 61%), indicating a tilt toward both teams scoring. Both teams have 0% clean sheets this season and concede heavily: Real Monarchs 2.56 goals per game, Sporting KC II 2.8, which materially increases the likelihood that each side will both score and concede. In the last 5 matches both sides have BTTS at 60%, scoring 7 and 6 goals respectively while conceding 8 and 13, reflecting high-scoring tendencies. xG metrics further support this scenario: xG_for 1.37 (home) vs 1.7 (away) with xG_against 1.77 and 1.57, and matches over 2.5 goals at 67% and 100%, so I assess BTTS - Yes as more likely at 75%.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
Based on xG (Real Monarchs attack xG 1.37 and Sporting KC II 1.70, with xG against 1.77 for hosts and 1.57 for visitors) I estimate 1.47 expected goals for Real Monarchs and 1.74 for Sporting KC II, totaling 3.21 goals. Seasonal stats confirm a propensity for goals: Over 1.5 occurred in 89% of hosts’ matches and 100% of visitors’ matches, while Over 2.5 occurred in 67% and 100% of matches respectively. In the last 5 fixtures hosts averaged 1.43 xG and conceded 1.57, visitors 1.86 xG and conceded 1.56; in the last 5 games Over 2.5 appeared in 60% (hosts) and 80% (visitors). Consequently the strongest signal is Over 1.5 (92%); Over 2.5 also has a significant probability (75%), whereas Over 3.5 is less certain (~38%) since the projected 3.21 is below the 3.5 line. Given the projected 3.21 goals and the high 89%/100% rates for Over 1.5, I recommend backing Over 1.5.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
Analysis of average goals and xG shows a clear advantage for Sporting KC II: the away side score on average 1.00 goal by Half-Time versus 0.11 for the home side, and 1.6 goals for the full match versus 0.78 for the hosts; xG is 1.7 for the away team versus 1.37 for the home team. A Poisson model based on Half-Time means (lambda 0.11 vs 1.00) suggests the away team lead at the break in around 59% of cases, a draw occurs in about 37%, and the home side only in roughly 4%. After accounting for the second half (second-half average goals: home 0.67, away 0.60) and other indicators (more shots on target 5.2 vs 4.11 and better conversion 10% vs 6%), the scenario 'away lead at Half-Time and win at Full-Time' is the strongest and in our forecast has about a 46% chance. Additionally, the home team rarely lead at the break (leadingAtHT 0% vs 20% for the away team), which further strengthens the selection 2/2 as the best option.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Real Monarchs | Sporting KC II | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 37% | 34% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.34 | 0.24 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Real Monarchs is 75% better for: last-5 form.
1.4 pts / match - Real Monarchs · 0.8 pts / match - Sporting KC II
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Real Monarchs is 62% better for: goals scored per match.
1.73 goals / match - Real Monarchs · 1.07 goals / match - Sporting KC II
Real Monarchs is 70% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.55 goals / match - Real Monarchs · 2.64 goals / match - Sporting KC II
Real Monarchs scores in 73% of matches (8 of 11 matches), while Sporting KC II keeps a clean sheet in 0% (0 of 14 matches).
Sporting KC II scores in 57% of matches (8 of 14 matches), while Real Monarchs keeps a clean sheet in 18% (2 of 11 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Real Monarchs
Over / Under - Sporting KC II
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Real Monarchs is 210% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.55 pts / match - Real Monarchs · 0.5 pts / match - Sporting KC II
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Real Monarchs - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 45% of matches and wins 36%. Usually protects the lead until full-time.
Concedes 0.6 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Sporting KC II - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 7% of matches and wins 14%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 1.0 |
| Average goals in match | 1.6 | 1.4 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 20% |
| No goal | 20% | 80% |
| Goal difference | +2 | -3 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.2 | 1.4 |
| Average goals in match | 2.2 | 1.6 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 80% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 40% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 20% | 20% |
| No goal | 40% | 80% |
| Goal difference | -1 | -6 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 46-60 (5 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (6). Late-goal balance (76-90): -3 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (6 goals). Concedes most in 16-30 (7). Late-goal balance (76-90): +1 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Real Monarchs
Sporting KC II
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (MLS Next Pro).
Teams vs league
| Real Monarchs | Liga | Sporting KC II | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | • 3.27 | 3.22 | ▲ 3.71 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 55% | 62% | ▼ 57% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 64% | 66% | ▲ 79% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 18% | 22% | ▼ 0% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 82% | 76% | ▲ 86% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 91% | 84% | ▲ 86% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (2): Real Monarchs 1 - 0 - 1 Sporting KC II. Average goals 4.00, both teams scored in 50% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Real Monarchs vs Sporting KC II?
The MLS Next Pro match finished Real Monarchs 1:3 Sporting KC II. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Real Monarchs and Sporting KC II?
In the last 2 head-to-head matches Real Monarchs won 1, Sporting KC II won 1 and 0 ended level. These games averaged 4.00 goals, with both teams scoring in 50% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Real Monarchs vs Sporting KC II?
Real Monarchs score 1.73 goals per game on average and Sporting KC II 1.07. The MLS Next Pro average is 3.22 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 66% of games. Both teams score in 55% of Real Monarchs's matches and 57% of Sporting KC II's.
What form are Real Monarchs and Sporting KC II in?
Over the last 5 games Real Monarchs have a 2-1-2 record (1.40 points per game) and Sporting KC II 1-1-3 (0.80 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Real Monarchs vs Sporting KC II?
The statistical background for Real Monarchs vs Sporting KC II — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.