Real Sociedad vs Deportivo Alavés: match statistics

I predict a home win (1) because Real Sociedad has a clear advantage in home metrics and sits 7th in the table while Alavés are 15th. At home Real averages 1.93 goals per match and records 5.13 shots on target with a 15% conversion rate, whereas visitors average 0.87 goals away, 3.73 shots on target and only 8% conversion. In the last 5 matches both teams scored 9 goals, but Real conceded 7 in that period and Alavés conceded 11, indicating greater defensive vulnerability for the visitors; additionally Alavés failed to score in 47% of away games versus only 7% of Real’s matches without a goal. xG also favors Sociedad: average xG for the hosts is 1.55 versus 1.24 for Alavés, and Real have a higher points average in the last five matches — 1.8 versus 1.0. Considering better efficiency (15%–8%), more shots on target (5.13–3.73) and a favourable home goal difference (+8 compared to -12 in visitors’ away record), I assess the probabilities as 70% for Real, 18% for a draw and 12% for Alavés.

I predict BTTS - Yes. Real Sociedad posts 73% BTTS at home while Deportivo Alavés is 47% on the season, but Alavés has reached 80% BTTS in their last 5 matches, increasing the likelihood of goals exchanged. Both teams averaged 1.8 goals in their last five fixtures (9 goals each), with Real conceding 1.4 on average and Alavés conceding 2.2, so the visitors are prone to leaking goals. xG confirms an open match profile: Real has 1.47 xG at home vs 1.24 xG for Alavés, and xG against is 1.29 (Real) and 1.57 (Alavés), meaning both teams create and concede chances. Caution is required because Alavés fail to score in 47% of matches this season (percentage of matches without a goal), and Real have only 13% clean sheets at home vs 7% clean sheets for Alavés away; taking into account Real’s 46 goals scored and Alavés’ 32, plus Real’s superiority in shots (13.07 vs 11.13) and conversion (10% vs 8%), I assign a 70% probability to the ‘Yes’ scenario.

I project about 1.55 goals for Real Sociedad and 1.30 for Deportivo Alavés, totaling 2.85 goals. This is based on xG comparison: Real xG_for 1.47 versus Alavés xG_against 1.57 (approx. 1.52 for the home side), and Alavés xG_for 1.24 versus Real xG_against 1.29 (approx. 1.27 for the away side); additionally, both teams have averaged 1.8 goals in their last 5 matches. A Poisson simulation with expected values 1.55 and 1.30 yields probabilities: Over 1.5 ≈ 78%, Over 2.5 ≈ 54% and Over 3.5 ≈ 32%. Seasonal indicators support this — Real have 80% of matches over 1.5, Alavés 60%, and Real record BTTS in 73% of fixtures; moreover Alavés concede on average 2.2 goals in the last 5 games, increasing the likelihood of more goals. Based on this I recommend backing Over 1.5 as the strongest and most probable signal; Over 2.5 has a moderate chance, while Over 3.5 looks risky.

At half-time a draw is more likely: Real Sociedad were level at the break in 9 of 15 home matches (60%), while Alavés led after 45 minutes in only 1 of 15 (7%). The hosts have the edge in xG and form — Real’s average xG is 1.47 versus Alavés’ 1.24, and in the last 5 matches Real have won 3 of 5 (60%) compared to 1 of 5 (20%) for the visitors. At half-time Real average 0.67 goals scored and 0.33 conceded, whereas Alavés average 0.27 scored and 0.67 conceded, indicating greater efficiency from the hosts after the break. In the second half both teams score on average 0.6 goals, but Alavés concedes on average 1.0 goal in the second half, so Real have a higher chance to turn the result in their favour. Given the frequent draw at the break (60%) and Real’s advantages in xG and form, the most likely scenario is a draw at half-time and a home win at full-time (X/1).