Red Star vs Metz: match statistics

Metz remain unbeaten after five rounds, recording 2 wins and 3 draws with a goal difference of 8:4, while Red Star have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat. The hosts create more high-quality chances at home, with an average xG of 1.87 compared with Metz’s 1.12 away from home, and also average 16 shots per match versus their opponents’ 11.5. However, Red Star’s main issue is finishing: despite these indicators, they score only 0.5 goals per home match and have failed to score in 50% of their games. Metz also average just 0.5 goals away from home, but concede only 0.5 per match and have kept a clean sheet in half of their outings. Both of Metz’s away matches ended in draws, making an evenly balanced share of the points the most likely outcome, particularly in a low-scoring encounter.

The case for both teams to score is strengthened by their recent form: BTTS occurred in 60% of Red Star’s matches and as many as 80% of Metz’s. During this period, Metz averaged 1.6 goals per match with an xG of 1.58, while Red Star conceded an average of 1.2 goals and allowed opponents an xG of 1.39. However, the hosts have a clear attacking advantage at home, scoring an average of 2.33 goals and recording 7.33 shots on target, compared with just 1.0 shot on target for Metz away from home. The main risk to the BTTS - Yes pick comes from Metz’s defence, which kept a clean sheet in 50% of away matches and conceded only 0.5 goals on average in those games. Nevertheless, Red Star failed to keep a clean sheet in any home fixture, so the most likely outcome remains Goal/Goal, with both teams expected to score.

Red Star create plenty of chances at home: averaging 16.67 shots, 7.33 on target, and 1.87 xG, meaning the hosts should significantly raise the match’s goal baseline. Metz, however, have a very solid away defensive record, conceding just 0.50 goals on average and keeping a clean sheet in 50% of matches. In their last five games, both teams recorded at least three goals in 40% of matches, while their average goals conceded stood at 1.20 and 0.80, respectively. Although the teams’ recent average xG figures, ranging from 1.54 to 1.58, suggest goalscoring potential, their results profile points more towards a two- or three-goal range than an open, high-scoring game. Under 3.5 has the edge, as Metz have never gone above this line away from home, while the hosts have done so in only 33% of their home matches.

Red Star have a clearly stronger home record: they average 2.33 goals, win 67% of their matches, and register 7.33 shots on target per game, while Metz score just 0.50 goals away from home and have not won a single match. The hosts led at the break in 33% of their home fixtures, whereas Metz were level at half-time in 100% of their away games, making the half-time draw a significant alternative. Red Star’s superiority after the interval is nevertheless strong: they average 1.33 goals in second halves, while Metz have failed to score in any of their away second halves. The hosts’ xG stands at 1.87 compared with Metz’s 1.12, and the difference in attacking quality is confirmed by shot conversion: 14% for Red Star versus 4% for the visitors. The most likely scenario is therefore an HT/FT 1/1 outcome, with Red Star taking the lead before half-time and holding it until the final whistle.