Reims vs Annecy: match statistics

Reims remain unbeaten in their last five matches, recording 2 wins and 3 draws with a 10:4 goal difference, although they have drawn both of their home games so far. Annecy sit in 2nd place and have won both of their league matches to date, while they are yet to concede away from home—an important argument in favour of their defensive resilience. However, the hosts create slightly more high-quality chances: their average home xG is 1.09 compared with Annecy’s 0.91 away from home, while Reims average 4 shots on target per match against 3 for the visitors. Reims’ defence looks less stable, as they concede an average of 3 goals at home and allow opponents an xG of 2.00, but Annecy score only 1 goal per away game. The clash between Reims’ strong current form and Annecy’s highly effective away defence points most clearly towards a share of the points.

The BTTS - No pick has a slight edge, as 0% of the teams’ league matches to date in their respective roles featured goals from both sides, while each team kept a clean sheet in 100% of such appearances. Annecy averages just 1.0 goals scored and an xG of 0.91, whereas Reims conceded an average of 0.8 goals in their last 5 matches. The hosts are clearly more dangerous in attack, averaging 1.45 xG and 6 shots on target per match compared with Annecy’s 0.91 xG and 3 shots on target, increasing the likelihood of a scenario in which only Reims scores. The last 5 matches provide mixed signals, with BTTS at 40% for Reims and 60% for Annecy, but the league average is only 39%; therefore, it remains more likely that at least one side will fail to score.

In their last 5 matches, Reims averaged 2.0 goals scored and 0.8 conceded, while Annecy averaged 1.4 goals scored and 1.0 conceded. The hosts have a clear attacking advantage: they average 6 shots on target compared with Annecy’s 3, and their xG stands at 1.45, while the xG conceded by their opponents is 1.84. At the same time, the projected 2.58 goals remains close to the league’s low average of 2.11, and only 60% of Reims’ and 40% of Annecy’s recent matches went over the 2.5-goal line. The 3.5 line is therefore set clearly above the most probable scoring range, which gives the edge to Under 3.5.

Reims have the clearer attacking potential: the hosts’ average xG stands at 1.45 compared with Annecy’s 0.91, while Reims average 6 shots on target per match against 3 for their opponents. In their last five matches, Reims have scored an average of 2.0 goals and conceded 0.8, whereas Annecy have scored 1.4 and conceded 1.0. The hosts led at the break in 40% of these matches, but their qualitative advantage and home field support the expectation that they will take the initiative before half-time. After the break, Reims have averaged 1.2 goals across their last five appearances, while Annecy have not conceded in this period of play, which limits confidence in the selection. Nevertheless, the most consistent scenario remains Reims leading at half-time and securing the full-time win. The season data is still based on a very small sample, so the probability of 1/1 remains moderate rather than dominant.