Renate vs Pro Patria: match statistics

Renate holds a clear table and seasonal advantage: they sit 5th with 16 wins this season versus Pro Patria’s 4 wins and 20th position. At home Renate averages 1.33 goals scored and 1.61 xG, while Pro Patria away record 0.89 goals per game and 1.16 xG; defensively Renate concede 1.00 goal at home versus 1.67 conceded by Pro Patria on the road. In terms of chance quality the hosts average 13 shots per game with 4.56 on target, while the visitors average 8.56 shots and 2.5 on target; the share of clean-sheet-less matches is 17% for Renate and 44% for Pro Patria. In the last 5 matches Renate scored 9 and conceded 8, with a 2-2-1 record (1.6 points per game), whereas Pro Patria also scored 9 but conceded 12 and managed only 1 win in those five (0.8 points per game). Considering the xG advantage, better shooting efficiency and lower percentage of matches without goals, I predict a home win; I estimate a 70% chance for Renate, 18% for a draw and 12% for an upset by Pro Patria.

Seasonal BTTS rates are 53% for Renate and 50% for Pro Patria, versus a league average of 50%, indicating a moderate tendency toward both teams scoring. A stronger signal comes from the last 5 matches: Renate had BTTS in 80% of games, Pro Patria in 100%, and both teams averaged 1.8 goals each in that period (9 goals in 5 matches each). Conversely, both sides concede frequently — averaging 1.6 (Renate) and 2.4 (Pro Patria) goals in the last 5 matches, and over the whole season Pro Patria conceded 68 goals versus Renate’s 36, which increases the likelihood of goals from both sides. xG confirms chance creation: Renate has 1.3 xG per match versus 1.16 for Pro Patria, and xG against are 1.58 and 1.8 respectively, so both teams generate and allow scoring opportunities. Considering 80–100% BTTS form, high goals conceded and xG>1 on both sides, I estimate BTTS probability at 70% (Yes) and 30% (No), therefore I recommend a "yes" bet.

I estimate total expected goals at 2.92 (Renate 1.55, Pro Patria 1.37), calculated from xG: Renate xG_for = 1.30 and Pro Patria xG_for = 1.16, with xG conceded (Pro Patria allows 1.80 xG, Renate 1.58). This season Renate’s matches finished with over 1.5 goals in 84% of games, Pro Patria in 67%, averaging around 76% season-wide; additionally both teams had BTTS in 53% and 50% of matches respectively. For the 2.5 line, season over rates are 58% (Renate) and 56% (Pro Patria), and in the last 5 matches both teams recorded over 2.5 goals in 80% of appearances, which increases the probability of Over 2.5 but not as strongly as Over 1.5. Therefore I recommend betting Over 1.5: I estimate the probability of over 1.5 at about 79%, over 2.5 at about 56% and over 3.5 at about 30%.

The most likely scenario is a draw at half-time and a Renate win after 90 minutes (X/1) — I assign it a 27% probability. The first half should be low-scoring: Renate averages 0.21 goals by the break, Pro Patria 0.28, and the half-time draw rate is around 42–44% (drawingAtHTPercentage_home 42%, drawingAtHTPercentage_away 44%), with a low share of both teams scoring before the break (5% vs 17%). Renate has the edge after the interval — average xG 1.30 versus 1.16 for the visitors (xg_for_avg_home 1.3 vs xg_for_avg_away 1.16), more shots 10.42 vs 8.56 and more shots on target 3.21 vs 2.5, which increases their chance of scoring in the second half. Pro Patria’s defense is weaker by xG conceded 1.80 versus 1.58 for Renate (xg_against_avg_away 1.8 vs xg_against_avg_home 1.58) and in the last five matches they concede on average 2.4 goals versus 1.6 for the home side (last5_seasonConcededAVG_overall_away 2.4 vs last5_seasonConcededAVG_overall_home 1.6). Therefore I expect most often the X/1 scenario (27%), and treat 1/1 (18%) and X/X (19%) as realistic alternatives — i.e. a draw at half-time with a higher likelihood of a Renate turnaround after the break.