Resovia Rzeszów vs Avia Świdnik: match statistics

Avia Świdnik are favourites primarily because of Resovia’s poor defence: they concede an average of 2.75 goals per home match and have yet to keep a clean sheet. The hosts have not won any of their 9 matches this season, scoring just 2 goals and suffering 4 defeats in their last 5 games. The visitors have also struggled for goals away from home, averaging 0.75 per match, but they create slightly better chances, with an xG of 1.53 compared with Resovia’s 1.41 at home. Avia also have the better defensive numbers: they concede an average of 1.75 goals away from home, while their opponents generate chances worth an xG of 1.20 against them; Resovia’s figure stands at 1.63. Both teams’ lack of attacking efficiency gives the draw a considerable chance, but the visitors’ 3 wins, compared with no wins for the hosts, point to Avia.

The strongest case for BTTS - No is that Avia failed to score in 50% of their matches this season, while both teams scored in just 25% of their games. Resovia have also struggled for goals recently: they averaged just 0.4 goals across their previous five matches, despite an xG of 1.21. There is still a realistic chance of goals at both ends, as the hosts have conceded an average of 2.4 goals recently, while Avia have recorded an xG of 1.73 and scored 1.2 goals per match. Resovia’s season average of 1.8 goals and Avia’s 1.75 goals conceded per match point to the hosts finding the net, but do not eliminate the risk that one team will fail to score. Therefore, the case for at least one team drawing a blank is modest, but stronger than the case for BTTS - Yes.

Resovia matches average 3.6 goals, compared with 2.5 in Avia matches; the 1.5-goal line has been exceeded in 80% and 50% of their matches, respectively. Resovia score an average of 1.8 goals and concede 1.8, while Avia score 0.75 and concede 1.75, pointing to greater attacking potential for the hosts. However, Resovia conceded as many as 2.4 goals per match across their last five appearances, while Avia recorded an average xG of 1.73, so the visitors could also get on the scoresheet. A forecast of 3.0 total goals, together with both teams recording at least three goals in 60% of their last five appearances, supports a high-scoring scenario, although Avia’s poor finishing increases the risk at higher lines. For this reason, Over 1.5 is the strongest pick, with an estimated probability of 80%.

A draw at half-time is likely: Resovia were level at the break in 3 of their 5 home matches, while Avia were level in 3 of their last 5 games; the visitors also failed to lead at half-time in any of their 4 away matches. After the break, recent form favours Avia, who have averaged 1.0 second-half goals across their last five matches, while Resovia have scored none during that period and conceded an average of 1.4. The hosts have lost 4 of their last 5 games, scoring an average of 0.4 goals per match and conceding 2.4, compared with Avia’s average of 1.2 goals scored. Although Resovia have the better scoring average over the season, at 1.8 compared with 0.75 goals, their recent struggles after the break make a draw at half-time followed by an away win at full-time the most likely outcome.