Rēzekne / BJSS vs Valmiera / BSS: match statistics

Valmiera / BSS are 2nd in the standings and have won 14 of their 17 matches, while Rēzekne / BJSS sit 14th with just 1 win and a 1-2-14 record. The visitors are on an excellent run of five consecutive victories, scoring 16 goals and conceding only 3, whereas the hosts have lost their last 5 matches, scoring just 3 goals. Away from home, Valmiera / BSS average 2.70 goals per match, with 11.7 shots and 6 shots on target—well above Rēzekne / BJSS’s home figures of 1.11 goals, 4.75 shots and 3.5 shots on target. The hosts’ defence concedes an average of 2.67 goals at home and have kept no clean sheets, while Valmiera / BSS have lost only 10% of their away matches and won 80%. The quality-of-chances differential also favours the visitors: their average xG is 1.69 compared with 0.88 for Rēzekne / BJSS, making the away side the clear favourite.

Historical BTTS indicators are high on both sides, at 71% for Rēzekne / BJSS and 70% for Valmiera / BSS, but the hosts’ current form clearly contradicts this. Rēzekne have lost their last five matches, scoring only 3 goals in that period—an average of 0.6 per game—while their xG was just 0.55. Valmiera are on a five-game winning streak and have conceded only 3 goals during this run, averaging 0.6, with 30% of their matches ending with a clean sheet across the season. The visitors should create plenty of chances themselves, as the hosts have recently conceded 2.4 goals per game, but the biggest risk to BTTS is Rēzekne’s very poor attack. Therefore, the more likely outcome is BTTS - No, meaning that at least one team—most notably the hosts—will fail to score. This does not automatically imply a 0:0 draw or that neither team will score.

Valmiera / BSS are in excellent form, winning their last five matches with 16 goals scored and just 3 conceded, averaging 3.2 goals scored per game. Rēzekne / BJSS have lost five consecutive matches, scoring only 0.6 goals and conceding 2.4 goals per game during that run, which clearly supports a scenario featuring at least two goals. Across the season, matches involving the two teams surpassed 1.5 goals in 100% and 90% of cases, respectively, while the league average stands at a high 3.59 goals. The Over 1.5 goals line offers the greatest security, as even with a weaker contribution from the hosts, the visitors' attacking play should create numerous chances on its own; their average xG is 1.69.

The strongest signal comes from current form: Rēzekne have lost all of their last five matches, scoring an average of just 0.6 goals and conceding 2.4, while Valmiera have won all five, with an average goal record of 3.2 scored and 0.6 conceded per match. The visitors led at the break in each of those five games, scoring an average of 1.8 goals before half-time, whereas the hosts failed to lead in any of them and went into the break trailing in 60% of matches. The defensive difference is also evident in the current period: Valmiera concede an average of 0.2 goals before half-time and 0.4 after the break, while Rēzekne score just 0.4 goals after half-time and concede 1.6. Although the hosts’ full-season figures are good, their recent run clearly contradicts those results; therefore, the most likely scenario is Valmiera leading at the break and securing the win at full-time (2/2).