RFC Liege vs Francs Borains: match statistics

RFC Liege have shown slightly better recent form: they have won 3 of their last five matches and averaged 1.8 points per game, while Francs Borains recorded 2 wins and 1.4 points. The hosts scored 7 goals during this period but also conceded 7, indicating a balanced goal difference and limiting the extent of their advantage. Francs Borains were marginally more effective in attack, scoring 9 goals, but their defence conceded as many as 10, which is 3 more than their opponents. In addition, the visitors sit higher in the table, in 6th place compared with RFC Liege in 12th, so their chances of taking points cannot be ruled out. However, home advantage and the hosts’ stronger recent trend point towards a narrow RFC Liege victory.

In their last five matches, both teams recorded BTTS in 60% of games, providing a clear basis for goals at both ends. RFC Liège averaged 1.4 goals scored and 1.4 conceded during this period, while Francs Borains scored 1.8 goals but allowed opponents as many as 2.0 goals per match. The hosts created chances worth an average xG of 1.47, while their defence allowed opponents an xG of 1.54, so the visitors should have genuine opportunities to score. Francs Borains have a lower attacking xG of 1.18, but the opponents’ weak defence and their own 9 goals scored in five appearances support a scenario in which the visitors find the net. The strongest signal is the combination of both teams scoring regularly and conceding a high number of goals, making BTTS - Yes the more likely outcome.

The strongest signal is Over 1.5 goals, as at least 3 goals were scored in 80% of the last 5 matches involving both teams. During this period, RFC Liège averaged 1.4 goals scored and 1.4 conceded, while Francs Borains scored 1.8 goals but allowed their opponents 2.0 goals per match. The hosts generated an xG of 1.47, while the visitors allowed an average of 1.57 xG, supporting a forecast of approximately 1.52 goals for RFC Liège. Francs Borains posted a lower attacking xG of 1.18, but the hosts’ defense allowed 1.54 xG, and both teams recorded a Both Teams to Score result in 60% of their last 5 appearances. The seasonal data in the matchup show values of 0, so greater weight is given to current form; a combined expected total of 3.00 goals gives a clear advantage to Over 1.5.

RFC Liege have won 3 of their last 5 matches, while Francs Borains have recorded 2 victories, supporting the home side’s advantage in the full-time result. The hosts were leading at the break in 40% of those matches and scored an average of 1.0 goal before half-time, compared with Francs Borains’ 20% of leads and 0.6 goals. Liege conceded an average of 1.4 goals per match in their last five outings, while the visitors conceded as many as 2.0, suggesting that the home attack should have more favourable conditions to maintain its lead. The 1/1 scenario remains the most likely, although it should be noted that Francs Borains averaged 1.2 goals after half-time, compared with just 0.4 for Liege. Therefore, draw-at-half-time variants are also rated relatively highly, but the hosts’ better start and superior results in terms of finishing point to a home lead and victory.