Rheindorf Altach vs Grazer AK: match statistics

Rheindorf Altach have a clear home advantage: they average 2 goals per match at home, with an xG of 1.76, while Grazer AK are yet to score away from home. The visitors have lost all three of their away matches, conceding an average of 4 goals, while their average xG against is a very high 2.60. Altach average 15.5 shots and 5.5 shots on target per home game, whereas Grazer AK manage just 9.33 attempts and 2 shots on target away from home. The hosts are yet to keep a clean sheet and concede an average of 1.5 goals, so a draw cannot be ruled out; however, the visitors’ poor away attack limits its potential. Grazer AK’s away goal difference stands at -12, which, combined with Altach’s positive home goal difference, points towards a home win.

The strongest signal against BTTS - Yes is Grazer AK’s attack: the visitors have yet to score in the current campaign, have failed to find the net in 100% of their matches, and their seasonal xG stands at just 0.90. Rheindorf Altach have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their matches and concede just 0.5 goals on average, further limiting the visitors’ chances of scoring. In their last five matches, BTTS occurred in 40% of Altach’s games and only 20% of Grazer AK’s, with the visitors averaging 0.8 goals scored. The hosts should create chances, averaging 20.0 shots and 6.5 shots on target per match, while Grazer AK concede an average of 4.0 goals and allow opponents an xG of 2.60. The more likely scenario is therefore one in which Altach score, but at least one team—most notably Grazer AK—fails to find the net. In other words, BTTS - No means that at least one team does not score; it does not automatically imply a 0:0 result or that neither team will score.

Altach creates very strong conditions for goals: its average xG stands at 2.10, while Grazer AK allows an average of 2.60 xG and concedes 4.00 goals per away match. The hosts average 20.0 shots, including 6.5 on target, while the visitors have allowed their opponents to score 13 goals in their matches so far. In Altach’s last five games, they have scored 11 goals, or 2.2 per match, and 80% of their games during this period went Over 2.5 goals. Grazer AK has scored just 0.8 goals per match in its last five outings, but Altach’s defence has conceded 1.4 goals per game during the same period, which still supports a scenario of at least two total goals. The strongest option is Over 1.5 goals, as the hosts’ attacking advantage over the visitors’ very weak defence should be enough to clear the low line.

Rheindorf Altach hold a clear advantage in the current-season data: they average 1.0 goals scored and just 0.5 conceded at home, while Grazer AK have yet to score away and allow opponents 4.0 goals per match. The first-half signal is particularly strong: the hosts were leading at the break in 50% of their matches and conceded no goals in those periods, whereas the visitors were behind after 45 minutes in all three away games, conceding an average of 2.67 goals. The quality-of-chances advantage also favours Altach, with average xG of 2.10 compared with Grazer AK’s 0.90, while shots on target stand at 6.5 to 2.0. More recent overall form calls for some caution, as Altach were leading at half-time in only 20% of their last five matches; however, the extent of Grazer AK’s away weakness still makes the scenario of the hosts leading at the break and securing a full-time victory the most likely HT/FT outcome.