Rheindorf Altach vs Hartberg: match statistics

Rheindorf Altach have a clear home advantage: they won their only home match to date, scoring 3 goals, while Hartberg lost their only away fixture 0:1. The hosts create significantly more danger, averaging 13 shots and 6 on target per match, compared with just 5 shots and 1 on target for the visitors. The difference is also reflected in the quality of chances: Altach’s average home xG stands at 1.37, while Hartberg’s away xG is just 0.51, with a very high xG against of 3.63. Hartberg are yet to score in three league matches this season and have failed to find the net in 100% of their away fixtures, which severely limits their chances of taking points. Altach have also won 3 of their last 5 matches, while Hartberg have suffered 3 defeats over the same period, making a home win the most likely outcome.

The stronger signal points to BTTS - No, as Rheindorf Altach recorded Goal/Goal in only 20% of their last 5 matches, while Hartberg did so in 40%, compared with the league average of 44%. Hartberg created just 0.51 xG away from home and averaged only 1.0 shot on target, which significantly reduces their chances of scoring. Altach conceded just 0.6 goals per match across their last 5 games and allowed opponents an average of 1.16 xG. The hosts should nevertheless have opportunities, as Hartberg allowed opponents as much as 3.63 xG away from home. Therefore, the most likely scenario is for one team to score, but not both—meaning at least one team is expected to fail to find the net, rather than an automatic 0:0.

In their last five matches, Altach scored 6 goals and conceded only 3, averaging 1.2 goals scored and 0.6 conceded per game. Hartberg also scored 6 goals, but their average quality of chances created is just 0.94 xG, while Altach’s defense has recently allowed 1.16 xG. The hosts have an attacking edge, as their 1.46 xG from the last five matches faces an opponent allowing as much as 2.38 xG, but Hartberg themselves limit the scoring potential on their end. Only 20% of Altach’s last five matches and 40% of Hartberg’s games went Over 2.5 goals, while the projected total of 2.30 goals clearly supports a low-scoring game. The strongest pick is therefore Under 3.5 goals, as the bet needs four goals to lose, even though the data points rather towards a result around two goals.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a Rheindorf Altach victory, as the hosts were level at the break in 3 of their last 5 matches, compared with 2 out of 5 for Hartberg. Altach are in better current form, averaging 1.2 goals scored and just 0.6 conceded per match, while Hartberg also score 1.2 but allow opponents to score 1.4. The hosts’ advantage increases after the break: over their last five matches, they averaged 0.8 goals scored and 0.2 conceded after half-time, whereas the visitors managed just 0.4 goals after the interval and lost the second half in 60% of their matches. In addition, Altach’s attacking potential of 1.08 xG faces a Hartberg defence allowing as much as 3.63 xG, increasing the hosts’ chances of turning an evenly contested opening into a positive result.