Rīgas FS II vs JDFS Alberts: match statistics

JDFS Alberts sit 5th, while Rīgas FS II are only 10th, with the visitors’ overall season record standing at 8 wins and 4 losses compared with the hosts’ 4 wins and 9 defeats. The visitors are also in significantly more stable form: they have collected 8 points from their last five matches, recording 2 wins and 2 draws, whereas Rīgas FS II have managed only 4 points and conceded as many as 20 goals. Away from home, Alberts average 1.88 goals scored with an xG of 1.65, while the hosts concede 2.25 goals per match at home and allow opponents an xG of 1.89. Alberts’ defence also looks stronger, with their average away xG conceded standing at 1.17 compared with the 1.54 xG generated by Rīgas FS II at home. The hosts can score an average of 1.50 goals per match, but a run of 3 defeats in their last 5 outings, combined with their extremely poor defensive record, points towards an away win.

The strongest argument for BTTS - Yes is that 100% of JDFS Alberts’ matches have seen both teams score, alongside the team’s failure to keep even a single clean sheet. Rīgas FS II average 2.13 goals and 7.5 shots on target per match, while the visitors concede an average of 1.88 goals. JDFS Alberts score an average of 1.88 goals, and the hosts’ defence has been particularly vulnerable recently, conceding as many as 4.0 goals per match across their previous five games. The current BTTS indicators also support the Goal/Goal option: they stand at 80% in Rīgas FS II’s last five matches and 60% for JDFS Alberts, compared with the league average of 63%. The hosts have kept a clean sheet in only 38% of their games this season, so even with a clear attacking advantage, they have limited grounds for completely shutting out the visitors.

Rīgas FS II average 2.13 goals at home, while JDFS Alberts concede as many as 1.88 goals away, clearly supporting high attacking activity from the hosts. The visitors score an average of 1.88 goals, while in their last five matches, Rīgas FS II allowed opponents as many as 4.0 goals per game. The 1.5 line was exceeded in 88% of the hosts’ matches and in 100% of JDFS Alberts’ games, while the league averages 3.58 goals per match. Additionally, both teams scored in both halves in 50% and 100% of their matches, respectively, while this scenario occurred in 80% of the hosts’ last five games. Over 1.5 goals is therefore strongly supported by both the consistency of the results and Rīgas FS II’s recent defensive weakness.

JDFS Alberts have the stronger recent run, averaging 1.6 points over their last five matches compared with just 0.8 for Rīgas FS II, who lost 60% of those games. The hosts have been particularly unstable before half-time, conceding an average of 2.4 goals in the first halves during this sequence and trailing at the break in 40% of matches. Alberts led after 45 minutes in 40% of their last five appearances, while Rīgas FS II did so in only 20%, strengthening the scenario of the visitors taking the lead from the outset. After the interval, the visitors won 60% of their recent second halves, whereas the hosts conceded as many as 4.0 goals per match across their last five games. Therefore, the most likely outcome is Alberts holding their lead through to the final whistle, supporting the HT/FT 2/2 scenario. The hosts’ season-long figures are superior, scoring 2.13 goals per match compared with the opponents’ 1.88, but their poor current defensive form significantly reduces the importance of this advantage.