Rīgas FS vs Riga: match statistics
Rīgas FS vs Riga: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Rīgas FS played Riga in Virsliga (Latvia). The match was played on 28 April 2026. Final score: 3:3.
Current form
Rīgas FS: 4-0-1, 2.40 points/match. Riga: 4-1-0, 2.60 points/match.
Goal statistics
Rīgas FS scores 1.63 and concedes 0.38 goals per match. Riga scores 3.63 and concedes 1.13. League average: 2.70 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Rīgas FS 25%, Riga 63%. Over 2.5: Rīgas FS 25%, Riga 100%. League level: BTTS 59%, Over 2.5 48%.
xG, shots and style
Riga has higher xG: 2.09 vs 2.01. Rīgas FS: 17.4 shots per match, Riga: 18.1.
Match halves
Rīgas FS: half-time lead 38%, second-half goals 1.13. Riga: half-time lead 75%, second-half goals 1.75.
Goals by minute
Rīgas FS: 46-60 (3 goals). Riga: 31-45+ (7 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Virsliga: 2.70 goals per match, BTTS 59%, Over 2.5 48%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 4 previous H2H matches were available: 1-1-2. Average goals 3.00, BTTS 50%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Riga are favorites due to a clear offensive edge: 29 goals scored this season versus 13 for Rīgas FS and an average of 3.6 goals away with xG 2.01, which combined with a high shot conversion rate of 21% gives them an advantage in finishing chances. The hosts, however, show a solid home defense — conceding just 0.5 goals per match on average, with xG against 0.65 and clean sheets in 50% of home games, although they themselves score an average of 2.0 goals with an 11% conversion. The visitors have never failed to score away (0% of away games without a goal), win 80% of away matches and despite a similar away xG (2.01) produce 3.6 goals per game, indicating high efficiency. Both teams are in good form: Rīgas FS have a last-5 record of 4 wins and 1 loss (averaging 2.4 points per game), and Riga 4 wins and 1 draw (averaging 2.6 points per game), so I expect an even but open match. Considering the visitors' superior conversion (21% vs 11%) and the fact that Riga regularly scores on the road, I predict a Riga win, although the scoreline should include goals from both sides.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Season-long indicators strongly favor BTTS: Rīgas FS has 67% of matches with both teams scoring, Riga 60%, and the league average is 61%—meaning in 6 out of 10 matches both sides score. Both teams generate significant offensive quality: season average goals 3.67 (home) vs 3.6 (away), xG 2.21 vs 2.01 and 6.0 vs 6.8 shots on target with conversion rates of 18% and 21%, which supports goal scoring. Seasonally Rīgas FS concedes on average 1.67 goals per game, and Riga 0.8; in the last 5 matches the hosts have only 20% BTTS and concede 0.4 goals, while Riga in their last 5 score 4.4 and concede 0.8 on average, showing a very strong away attack. Both teams have 100% of matches over 2.5 goals this season, and the share of over2.5 with BTTS is 67%/60%, so overall the seasonal and xG signals outweigh the hosts’ short form. Consequently I tip 'BTTS - Yes' as the more probable scenario.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
The xG-based model yields total expected goals of 2.98: home ~1.63 ((2.21 xG attack + 1.05 opponent defense xG)/2 = 1.63), away ~1.35 ((2.01 + 0.69)/2 = 1.35). A Poisson with λ=2.98 suggests ~57% probability of ≥3 goals (Over 2.5) and ~35% for ≥4 goals (Over 3.5). However, seasonal data strongly point to a higher goals environment: home score an average of 3.67 goals per game, away 3.60, and seasonOver25Percentage for both teams is 100% with BTTS 67% (home) and 60% (away). In the last 5 matches the away side scored 22 goals (4.4 avg) while the home scored 6 (1.2 avg); additionally the home register 20.33 shots with an 18% conversion vs opponents’ 16.8 shots and 21% conversion, which raises the realistic scoring potential. Taking xG 2.98, the firm seasonal 100% over 2.5 for both teams and high BTTS into account, I recommend Over 2.5 as the strongest line (estimated Over 2.5 = 78%), with a high probability of Over 1.5 (95%) and a moderate chance of Over 3.5 (56%).
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
Half-time statistics favor the away team: in the last 5 matches the away side scored 14 goals by the break (2.8 per game) while the home side managed only 3 (0.6). Season-to-date the away team has an 80% win rate compared to 67% for the home team, and in the last 5 fixtures the away side led at the break in 100% of cases versus just 40% for the home side. Although the hosts have a higher average xG (2.21 vs 2.01) and seasonally more goals before the break (2.0 vs 1.8), the away advantage is confirmed by a superior shot-to-goal conversion rate (21% vs 18%) and more goals in the 0–15 minute window (3 vs 0). On this basis the most likely scenario is 2/2 (away lead at the break and away win) — I assign it a 42% probability; X/2 receives 18%, while the remaining outcomes carry substantially lower probabilities.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Rīgas FS | Riga | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 33% | 36% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.28 | 0.56 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Riga is 8% better for: last-5 form.
2.4 pts / match - Rīgas FS · 2.6 pts / match - Riga
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Riga is 123% better for: goals scored per match.
1.63 goals / match - Rīgas FS · 3.63 goals / match - Riga
Rīgas FS is 197% better for: goals conceded per match.
0.38 goals / match - Rīgas FS · 1.13 goals / match - Riga
Rīgas FS scores in 88% of matches (7 of 8 matches), while Riga keeps a clean sheet in 38% (3 of 8 matches).
Riga scores in 100% of matches (8 of 8 matches), while Rīgas FS keeps a clean sheet in 63% (5 of 8 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Rīgas FS
Over / Under - Riga
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Riga is 46% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.63 pts / match - Rīgas FS · 2.38 pts / match - Riga
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Rīgas FS - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 38% of matches and wins 88%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Riga - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 75% of matches and wins 75%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.1 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| Average goals in match | 0.6 | 1.0 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 0% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 80% |
| No goal | 60% | 40% |
| Goal difference | +1 | +3 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 2.4 | 2.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| Average goals in match | 2.8 | 2.4 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 100% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 60% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 80% |
| No goal | 0% | 20% |
| Goal difference | +10 | +8 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 46-60 (3 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (2). Late-goal balance (76-90): +3 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (7 goals). Concedes most in 46-60 (3). Late-goal balance (76-90): +5 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Rīgas FS
Riga
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Virsliga).
Teams vs league
| Rīgas FS | Liga | Riga | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 2.00 | 2.70 | ▲ 4.75 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 25% | 59% | ▲ 63% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 25% | 48% | ▲ 100% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 63% | 20% | ▲ 38% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 63% | 75% | ▲ 100% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 63% | 84% | ▲ 88% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (4): Rīgas FS 1 - 1 - 2 Riga. Average goals 3.00, both teams scored in 50% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Rīgas FS vs Riga?
The Virsliga match finished Rīgas FS 3:3 Riga. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Rīgas FS and Riga?
In the last 4 head-to-head matches Rīgas FS won 1, Riga won 2 and 1 ended level. These games averaged 3.00 goals, with both teams scoring in 50% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Rīgas FS vs Riga?
Rīgas FS score 1.63 goals per game on average and Riga 3.63. The Virsliga average is 2.70 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 48% of games. Both teams score in 25% of Rīgas FS's matches and 63% of Riga's.
What form are Rīgas FS and Riga in?
Over the last 5 games Rīgas FS have a 4-0-1 record (2.40 points per game) and Riga 4-1-0 (2.60 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Rīgas FS vs Riga?
The statistical background for Rīgas FS vs Riga — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.