Rīgas FS vs Super Nova: match statistics
Rīgas FS vs Super Nova: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Rīgas FS played Super Nova in Virsliga (Latvia). The match was played on 18 April 2026. Final score: 2:0.
Current form
Rīgas FS: 4-0-1, 2.40 points/match. Super Nova: 3-1-1, 2.00 points/match.
Goal statistics
Rīgas FS scores 1.67 and concedes 0.50 goals per match. Super Nova scores 1.33 and concedes 1.50. League average: 2.79 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Rīgas FS 33%, Super Nova 83%. Over 2.5: Rīgas FS 33%, Super Nova 67%. League level: BTTS 62%, Over 2.5 50%.
xG, shots and style
Rīgas FS has higher xG: 1.99 vs 1.32. Rīgas FS: 16.8 shots per match, Super Nova: 10.3.
Match halves
Rīgas FS: half-time lead 50%, second-half goals 1.00. Super Nova: half-time lead 33%, second-half goals 0.50.
Goals by minute
Rīgas FS: 76-90+ (3 goals). Super Nova: 16-30 (3 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Virsliga: 2.79 goals per match, BTTS 62%, Over 2.5 50%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 4 previous H2H matches were available: 4-0-0. Average goals 3.75, BTTS 100%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Rīgas FS has a clear advantage in chance creation: at home they average 18 shots and 7 shots on target per match with xG 2.12, translating to 2.00 goals scored per match and a +4 home goal differential. Super Nova on the road averages 10.25 shots and 4.25 on target with xG 1.36, scores 1.5 goals per away match and posts a higher conversion rate (15% vs the hosts' 11%), but creates significantly fewer chances. Defensively the hosts look stronger: Rīgas FS concedes only 0.67 goals per home match with xG against 0.67, while Super Nova concedes 1.0 goals on average away and has 9 goals conceded this season. Recent form also favors the hosts — Rīgas FS have won 4 of their last 5 matches and collect 2.4 points per match in that period, whereas Super Nova have won 3 of 5 and average 2.0 points per match. Considering the possession advantage (67% vs 43%), superior quantity and quality of chances (xG 2.12 vs 1.36 and 7 vs 4.25 shots on target) and more solid defense (0.67 vs 1.0), I predict a home win.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
The BTTS scenario appears more likely: Rīgas FS has BTTS in 100% of home matches, while Super Nova records BTTS in 75% of away games, against a league BTTS average of 61%. Season averages show Rīgas scores 1.0 and concedes 2.5 goals per match, whereas Super Nova scores 1.5 and concedes 1.0, so Rīgas has a clear tendency to concede. Combined expected xG is 2.62 (1.26 + 1.36), and on-target shots are 4.0 for Rīgas and 4.25 for Super Nova, confirming both teams create scoring opportunities. As a caveat, in the last 5 matches Rīgas had only 40% BTTS versus 80% for Super Nova, but Rīgas in that period recorded a recent xG of 1.91 and scored 8 goals in the last 5 matches, so this does not rule out both teams scoring. Considering 100% BTTS at home, 75% away, combined xG of 2.62 and league BTTS level of 61%, I recommend BTTS "yes" with a probability of 80% versus 20%.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
The projection based on xG and statistics yields 1.29 expected goals for the home side (home xG 1.26 vs xG conceded by Super Nova 1.32) and 1.61 for the visitors (away xG 1.36 vs xG conceded by Rīgas FS 1.85), totaling 2.90 expected goals. Season metrics show Rīgas FS matches finished over 1.5 goals in 100% of cases, and Super Nova in 75% of cases; additionally, home matches had goals from both teams in 100% of games, and away matches in 75%, which increases the likelihood of goals. A Poisson distribution model with λ=2.90 calculates roughly a 78.5% chance of at least 2 goals (Over 1.5), about 55% for 3+ goals (Over 2.5) and around 33% for 4+ goals (Over 3.5), therefore the strongest and most reliable selection is Over 1.5. The last 5 rounds confirm the offensive trend: Rīgas FS in the last 5 has xG 1.91 and on average 1.6 scored with 0.6 conceded, while Super Nova has xG 1.31 and on average 1.4 scored with 1.4 conceded, which supports the forecast.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
Super Nova appear to be clear favorites: seasonal points per match are 2.25 for the away side versus 0.50 for the home side, and win percentages are 75% vs 0%. First-half HT statistics strongly favor the visitors — the home team concedes on average 2.0 goals by the break (concededAVGHT_home = 2.0) and were trailing at halftime in 2 of 2 cases (100%), while the visitors score on average 1.0 goal before the break (scoredAVGHT_away = 1.0) and led at the break in 2 cases (50%). Offensive xG is similar (1.26 for the home team vs 1.36 for the visitors), but Rīgas FS’s defense is clearly weaker (xG against 1.85 vs 1.32), which increases the likelihood that the visitors’ lead at the break will be maintained after halftime. Additionally, both teams’ matches often end with goals at both ends (BTTS 100% for the home side, 75% for the visitors), so I expect an exchange of goals rather than a goalless draw. On this basis I assign the highest probability to the scenario of the visitors leading at half-time and winning by full-time (2/2), while also allocating small chances to a draw or a turnaround in the second half.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Rīgas FS | Super Nova | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 36% | 40% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.13 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.28 | 0.32 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Rīgas FS is 20% better for: last-5 form.
2.4 pts / match - Rīgas FS · 2 pts / match - Super Nova
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Rīgas FS is 26% better for: goals scored per match.
1.67 goals / match - Rīgas FS · 1.33 goals / match - Super Nova
Rīgas FS is 200% better for: goals conceded per match.
0.5 goals / match - Rīgas FS · 1.5 goals / match - Super Nova
Rīgas FS scores in 83% of matches (5 of 6 matches), while Super Nova keeps a clean sheet in 17% (1 of 6 matches).
Super Nova scores in 100% of matches (6 of 6 matches), while Rīgas FS keeps a clean sheet in 50% (3 of 6 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Rīgas FS
Over / Under - Super Nova
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Rīgas FS is 56% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.83 pts / match - Rīgas FS · 1.17 pts / match - Super Nova
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Rīgas FS - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 50% of matches and wins 83%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Super Nova - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 33% of matches and wins 50%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| Average goals in match | 1.2 | 1.0 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 40% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 80% |
| No goal | 20% | 60% |
| Goal difference | +2 | +3 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.8 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 1.8 | 1.0 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 0% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 40% |
| No goal | 40% | 60% |
| Goal difference | +1 | -1 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (3 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (2). Late-goal balance (76-90): +3 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 16-30 (3 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (4). Late-goal balance (76-90): +2 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Rīgas FS
Super Nova
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Virsliga).
Teams vs league
| Rīgas FS | Liga | Super Nova | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 2.17 | 2.79 | • 2.83 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 33% | 62% | ▲ 83% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 33% | 50% | ▲ 67% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 50% | 19% | ▼ 17% |
| Goal before half-time | • 83% | 82% | • 83% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 50% | 82% | ▲ 100% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (4): Rīgas FS 4 - 0 - 0 Super Nova. Average goals 3.75, both teams scored in 100% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Rīgas FS vs Super Nova?
The Virsliga match finished Rīgas FS 2:0 Super Nova. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Rīgas FS and Super Nova?
In the last 4 head-to-head matches Rīgas FS won 4, Super Nova won 0 and 0 ended level. These games averaged 3.75 goals, with both teams scoring in 100% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Rīgas FS vs Super Nova?
Rīgas FS score 1.67 goals per game on average and Super Nova 1.33. The Virsliga average is 2.79 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 50% of games. Both teams score in 33% of Rīgas FS's matches and 83% of Super Nova's.
What form are Rīgas FS and Super Nova in?
Over the last 5 games Rīgas FS have a 4-0-1 record (2.40 points per game) and Super Nova 3-1-1 (2.00 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Rīgas FS vs Super Nova?
The statistical background for Rīgas FS vs Super Nova — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.