Rijeka vs HNK Vukovar 1991: match statistics

Rijeka is the favorite in this matchup: across the season they have 12 wins and 44 goals scored versus HNK Vukovar 1991’s 6 wins and 34 goals. In home matches Rijeka averages 1.5 goals scored and concedes 0.94 (goal difference +9), while the visitors average 0.75 goals scored and concede 2.06 away (goal difference -21). Chance quality favors the hosts — Rijeka’s home xG is 1.87 with 4.63 shots on target per game, whereas Vukovar’s xG is 1.15 with only 2.63 shots on target, with similar conversion rates of 9% versus 8%. The defensive gap is clear: Rijeka has 44% clean sheets at home, while Vukovar has only 6% on the road and has conceded 62 goals this season. Although Vukovar scored 7 goals and has 1.4 pts in their last 5 matches versus Rijeka’s 5 goals and 1.0 pt, the hosts’ superiority in chance quality and defense supports a Rijeka victory.

Both teams have high seasonal BTTS rates: Rijeka 65% and HNK Vukovar 1991 63%, while the league BTTS level is 55%, indicating both sides score in over half of matches. Both teams concede goals easily — Rijeka 1.71 goals per match, Vukovar 2.06, with xG against of 1.79 vs 1.97, confirming they create chances for opponents. The visitors, despite a low goals-per-game average of 0.75, have BTTS at 80% in their last 5 fixtures (4 of 5), and the hosts score 1.29 goals seasonally while keeping a clean sheet in only 18% of matches, reducing the likelihood of 0-0. At the same time Rijeka has had BTTS in only 20% of their last 5 matches and a recent xG against of 0.67 suggests a short-term defensive improvement, but this signal is weaker than the broader seasonal trend. Considering the seasonal BTTS rates advantage (65% and 63%), high goals-conceded figures (1.71 and 2.06) and low clean sheet percentages (18% and 6%), I forecast BTTS = Yes with probability 70% and No 30%.

The xG-based model projects a total of ~3.19 goals: Rijeka has an attacking xG of 1.46 while Vukovar concedes xG of 1.97 (≈1.72 expected goals for Rijeka); Vukovar has an attacking xG of 1.15 while Rijeka concedes xG of 1.79 (≈1.47 expected goals for the visitors). This season Rijeka’s matches finished over 1.5 goals in 76% of cases and Vukovar’s in 88%, averaging ~82% as a base for Over 1.5; additionally both teams have BTTS rates of 65% and 63% respectively. Rijeka averages 10.59 shots and 4.0 on target (conversion 12%), Vukovar 9.0 and 2.63 on target (conversion 8%), which increases the likelihood of goals especially from the hosts. Given the 3.19 goal average and seasonal Over 2.5 shares (Rijeka 53%, Vukovar 63%), I estimate Over 2.5 at ~62% and Over 3.5 at ~40% (Poisson calculations for a mean of 3.19). The strongest signal from the data is Over 1.5 (approx. 83%), hence the recommendation: play Over 1.5.

Most likely the half-time score will be a draw — Rijeka were level at the break in 53% of their home matches, while Vukovar were level at half-time in 38% of their games; hosts average 0.35 goals in the first half versus the visitors’ 0.31. The first half is generally low-scoring: hosts concede 0.76 goals on average by half-time, visitors 1.00, so the total number of first-half goals remains low. In the second half Rijeka are markedly stronger: they score on average 0.94 goals after the break versus Vukovar’s 0.44 and win the second half in 41% of matches, while Vukovar win it in only 6%. Additionally, the hosts’ xG is 1.46 compared to the visitors’ 1.15, and Rijeka’s season home PPG is 1.24 versus Vukovar’s 0.44 on the road, which supports an expected turnaround and a home victory after the break. As a result the most likely scenario is a draw at half-time and a Rijeka win at full-time (X/1) — I assign it a 30% probability, then X/X 18% and 2/2 16%, with the remaining combinations considered less likely.