Rijeka vs Istra 1961: match statistics

Rijeka are showing clearly stronger current form: they have won 3 of their last 5 matches, scoring an average of 1.0 goals and conceding just 0.8, while Istra 1961 have lost 2 of their five games and conceded as many as 9 goals. At home, the hosts won their only match so far, averaging 68% possession, 29 shots and 10 shots on target per game. The difference in the quality of chances created is significant, with Rijeka averaging 3.24 xG at home compared with just 0.86 xG for Istra away. The visitors do score an average of 2 goals away from home, but they allow opponents 2.20 xG and concede 2 goals on average, which, combined with Rijeka’s attacking advantage, points to a home victory. Istra have drawn both of their away matches so far, making a draw a realistic alternative, but a Rijeka win is more likely.

Rijeka should create plenty of chances, as they average 2.51 xG and 7.5 shots on target at home, while Istra concede as much as 2.20 xG away from home and have kept no clean sheets. However, the visitors have a weaker offensive profile over the course of the season, with an average xG of just 0.86 and only 2.0 shots on target per match, which clearly limits confidence in their scoring. Istra’s current form is nevertheless more promising: in their last five matches, they averaged 1.8 goals with an xG of 1.82, while Rijeka conceded 0.8 goals per match during that period. BTTS landed in 60% of Istra’s last five matches, and all of their away matches so far this season have featured goals from both sides. The BTTS - Yes pick is therefore slightly preferred, mainly due to the very high probability of a home goal and the visitors’ improving attacking form, although Rijeka’s solid defence keeps the risk of an Istra No Goal scenario alive.

Rijeka create a high volume of chances at home, averaging 2.51 xG, 22 shots and 7.5 shots on target per match, while Istra allow an average of 2.20 xG away from home. The visitors score an average of 2.0 goals per away game, while Rijeka concede 1.5 goals in those matches, although the hosts’ defensive potential is supported by a 50% clean-sheet rate. All league matches played so far by both teams have gone over 1.5 goals and have also ended with at least three goals, although the season sample is clearly limited. Caution with higher lines is warranted by Rijeka’s last five matches, which produced an average of just 1.8 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in only 20% of cases. The strongest signal therefore remains Over 1.5: Rijeka’s attacking advantage and Istra’s defensive weaknesses should be enough to produce at least two goals.

Rijeka have a clear quality advantage in chance creation: their average xG stands at 2.51, compared with just 0.86 for Istra 1961, while the visitors concede an average xG of 2.20. The hosts average 22 shots and 7.5 shots on target per match, compared with 7 and 2 respectively for Istra, strongly supporting the scenario of Rijeka taking the lead before half-time. In their last five matches, Rijeka were ahead at the break in 60% of games, while Istra were behind after 45 minutes in 50%, conceding an average of 1.25 goals in the first half. Rijeka won 60% of their last five matches and conceded just 0.8 goals per game during that run, whereas Istra suffered defeat in 40% of their recent outings. The most likely outcome is therefore 1/1: the hosts’ advantage from the first half should translate into maintaining the lead until the final whistle.