Rio Ave FC vs Casa Pia: match statistics
Statistical analysis suggests very even chances for both sides. Rio Ave FC displays poor home form with only a 14% win rate and a 43% loss rate, averaging 1 goal scored per game. Casa Pia holds a better win record in away fixtures (38%), but they concede an average of 1.75 goals per game. Both teams share an identical goal difference (-5) and identical form over the last 5 matches (1 point per game). The xG statistics are nearly identical for both squads, further confirming the balanced nature of this clash. Given Rio Ave's high draw percentage at home (43%) and the general offensive struggles of both teams, a draw appears the most probable outcome, although the hosts' slight edge in possession gives them a marginally higher chance of victory.
Rio Ave FC vs Casa Pia: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Rio Ave FC played Casa Pia in Liga NOS (Portugal). The match was played on 4 January 2026. Final score: 3:1.
Current form
Rio Ave FC: 1-2-2, 1.00 points/match. Casa Pia: 1-2-2, 1.00 points/match.
Goal statistics
Rio Ave FC scores 1.19 and concedes 1.75 goals per match. Casa Pia scores 1.00 and concedes 1.81. League average: 2.73 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Rio Ave FC 63%, Casa Pia 44%. Over 2.5: Rio Ave FC 63%, Casa Pia 44%. League level: BTTS 47%, Over 2.5 53%.
xG, shots and style
Rio Ave FC has higher xG: 1.03 vs 0.95. Rio Ave FC: 9.2 shots per match, Casa Pia: 8.3.
Match halves
Rio Ave FC: half-time lead 31%, second-half goals 0.63. Casa Pia: half-time lead 19%, second-half goals 0.63.
Goals by minute
Rio Ave FC: 16-30 (4 goals). Casa Pia: 61-75 (4 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Liga Portugal: 2.73 goals per match, BTTS 47%, Over 2.5 53%.
Head-to-head
No aligned head-to-head sample is available in the database.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Statistical analysis suggests very even chances for both sides. Rio Ave FC displays poor home form with only a 14% win rate and a 43% loss rate, averaging 1 goal scored per game. Casa Pia holds a better win record in away fixtures (38%), but they concede an average of 1.75 goals per game. Both teams share an identical goal difference (-5) and identical form over the last 5 matches (1 point per game). The xG statistics are nearly identical for both squads, further confirming the balanced nature of this clash. Given Rio Ave's high draw percentage at home (43%) and the general offensive struggles of both teams, a draw appears the most probable outcome, although the hosts' slight edge in possession gives them a marginally higher chance of victory.
View the statistical overviewHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Rio Ave FC | Casa Pia | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 40% | 34% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.32 | 0.36 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Rio Ave FC is 19% better for: goals scored per match.
1.19 goals / match - Rio Ave FC · 1 goals / match - Casa Pia
Rio Ave FC scores in 69% of matches (11 of 16 matches), while Casa Pia keeps a clean sheet in 19% (3 of 16 matches).
Casa Pia scores in 56% of matches (9 of 16 matches), while Rio Ave FC keeps a clean sheet in 13% (2 of 16 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Rio Ave FC
Over / Under - Casa Pia
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Rio Ave FC is 42% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.25 pts / match - Rio Ave FC · 0.88 pts / match - Casa Pia
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Rio Ave FC - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 31% of matches and wins 19%. Sometimes loses the lead after half-time.
Concedes 0.4 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Casa Pia - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 19% of matches and wins 19%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.8 | 1.0 |
| Average goals in match | 1.4 | 1.4 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 20% | 40% |
| No goal | 40% | 60% |
| Goal difference | -1 | -3 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.60 | 1.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.0 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 0.4 | 1.2 |
| 1 goal | 40% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 0% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 60% |
| No goal | 100% | 60% |
| Goal difference | -2 | 0 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 16-30 (4 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (6). Late-goal balance (76-90): -2 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 61-75 (4 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (7). Late-goal balance (76-90): -1 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Rio Ave FC
Casa Pia
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Liga Portugal).
Teams vs league
| Rio Ave FC | Liga | Casa Pia | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 2.94 | 2.73 | • 2.81 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 63% | 47% | ▼ 44% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 63% | 53% | ▼ 44% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 13% | 30% | ▼ 19% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 81% | 75% | • 75% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 81% | 76% | ▲ 81% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
FAQ
What was the result of Rio Ave FC vs Casa Pia?
The Liga NOS match finished Rio Ave FC 3:1 Casa Pia. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Rio Ave FC vs Casa Pia?
Rio Ave FC score 1.19 goals per game on average and Casa Pia 1.00. The Liga NOS average is 2.73 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 53% of games. Both teams score in 63% of Rio Ave FC's matches and 44% of Casa Pia's.
What form are Rio Ave FC and Casa Pia in?
Over the last 5 games Rio Ave FC have a 1-2-2 record (1.00 points per game) and Casa Pia 1-2-2 (1.00 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Rio Ave FC vs Casa Pia?
The statistical background for Rio Ave FC vs Casa Pia — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.