Rio Ave FC vs Estrela Amadora: match statistics
Statistical analysis indicates even chances for both teams, suggesting a draw as the most likely outcome. Rio Ave displays poor home form with only a 17% win rate and a high 50% loss rate, conceding an average of 1.67 goals per game. Estrela Amadora also performs mediocrely on the road (17% win rate, 42% draw rate) but shows slightly better attacking efficiency (13% shot conversion compared to the hosts' 9%). Both teams have a similar goal difference (Rio Ave -9, Estrela -10) and close xG values, confirming an evenly matched level. The recent form of both sides is unstable, which further supports a draw as the resolution of this encounter.
Rio Ave FC vs Estrela Amadora: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Rio Ave FC played Estrela Amadora in Liga NOS (Portugal). The match was played on 15 March 2026. Final score: 2:1.
Current form
Rio Ave FC: 1-1-3, 0.80 points/match. Estrela Amadora: 1-2-2, 1.00 points/match.
Goal statistics
Rio Ave FC scores 0.96 and concedes 1.76 goals per match. Estrela Amadora scores 1.12 and concedes 1.72. League average: 2.71 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Rio Ave FC 48%, Estrela Amadora 48%. Over 2.5: Rio Ave FC 60%, Estrela Amadora 52%. League level: BTTS 47%, Over 2.5 55%.
xG, shots and style
Estrela Amadora has higher xG: 1.15 vs 1.07. Rio Ave FC: 9.6 shots per match, Estrela Amadora: 10.7.
Match halves
Rio Ave FC: half-time lead 20%, second-half goals 0.56. Estrela Amadora: half-time lead 20%, second-half goals 0.60.
Goals by minute
Rio Ave FC: 61-75 (6 goals). Estrela Amadora: 61-75 (8 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Liga Portugal: 2.71 goals per match, BTTS 47%, Over 2.5 55%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 1-0-0. Average goals 3.00, BTTS 100%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Statistical analysis indicates even chances for both teams, suggesting a draw as the most likely outcome. Rio Ave displays poor home form with only a 17% win rate and a high 50% loss rate, conceding an average of 1.67 goals per game. Estrela Amadora also performs mediocrely on the road (17% win rate, 42% draw rate) but shows slightly better attacking efficiency (13% shot conversion compared to the hosts' 9%). Both teams have a similar goal difference (Rio Ave -9, Estrela -10) and close xG values, confirming an evenly matched level. The recent form of both sides is unstable, which further supports a draw as the resolution of this encounter.
View the statistical overviewHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Rio Ave FC | Estrela Amadora | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 37% | 34% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.27 | 0.31 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Estrela Amadora is 25% better for: last-5 form.
0.8 pts / match - Rio Ave FC · 1 pts / match - Estrela Amadora
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Estrela Amadora is 17% better for: goals scored per match.
0.96 goals / match - Rio Ave FC · 1.12 goals / match - Estrela Amadora
Rio Ave FC scores in 56% of matches (14 of 25 matches), while Estrela Amadora keeps a clean sheet in 24% (6 of 25 matches).
Estrela Amadora scores in 56% of matches (14 of 25 matches), while Rio Ave FC keeps a clean sheet in 16% (4 of 25 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Rio Ave FC
Over / Under - Estrela Amadora
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Rio Ave FC - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 20% of matches and wins 20%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.3 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Estrela Amadora - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 20% of matches and wins 20%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.2 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 60% |
| No goal | 80% | 80% |
| Goal difference | -2 | -2 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.2 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 0.6 | 1.4 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 0% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 40% |
| No goal | 80% | 60% |
| Goal difference | -1 | -1 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 61-75 (6 goals). Concedes most in 61-75 (9). Late-goal balance (76-90): -4 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 61-75 (8 goals). Concedes most in 46-60 (10). Late-goal balance (76-90): -1 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Rio Ave FC
Estrela Amadora
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Liga Portugal).
Teams vs league
| Rio Ave FC | Liga | Estrela Amadora | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | • 2.72 | 2.71 | ▲ 2.84 |
| Both teams scored | • 48% | 47% | • 48% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 60% | 55% | ▼ 52% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 16% | 30% | ▼ 24% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 76% | 71% | • 72% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 76% | 78% | ▼ 76% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Rio Ave FC 1 - 0 - 0 Estrela Amadora. Average goals 3.00, both teams scored in 100% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Rio Ave FC vs Estrela Amadora?
The Liga NOS match finished Rio Ave FC 2:1 Estrela Amadora. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Rio Ave FC vs Estrela Amadora?
Rio Ave FC score 0.96 goals per game on average and Estrela Amadora 1.12. The Liga NOS average is 2.71 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 55% of games. Both teams score in 48% of Rio Ave FC's matches and 48% of Estrela Amadora's.
What form are Rio Ave FC and Estrela Amadora in?
Over the last 5 games Rio Ave FC have a 1-1-3 record (0.80 points per game) and Estrela Amadora 1-2-2 (1.00 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Rio Ave FC vs Estrela Amadora?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for Rio Ave FC vs Estrela Amadora: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.