River Plate vs Argentinos Juniors: match statistics

River Plate have a clear home advantage when it comes to chance creation, averaging 19.71 shots, posting an xG of 2.14 and enjoying 68% possession. However, the hosts are in very poor form, having lost their last five matches, scoring just 1 goal and conceding 7 in that run. Argentinos Juniors are unbeaten in their last five games, winning 4 and drawing 1, with 10 goals scored and 4 conceded. The visitors are more clinical, converting 13% of their attempts compared with River Plate’s 8%, and have lost only 3 of 23 matches this season. Although Argentinos Juniors average 1.22 goals scored and 1.22 conceded away from home, their current consistency and the hosts’ attacking crisis point towards an away win.

The strongest argument against BTTS - Yes is River Plate’s highly solid home defence: the team concedes just 0.43 goals per match on average and keeps a clean sheet in 64% of games. River also have a low seasonal rate of matches in which both teams score, at 36%, compared with the league average of 43%. However, the hosts are in a clear attacking crisis, having scored just 1 goal in their last 5 matches—an average of 0.2 per game—while BTTS occurred in only 20% of those fixtures. Argentinos Juniors are in good scoring form, netting 10 goals in their last 5 appearances, but their chances of scoring against River’s defence are limited; the visitors average 3.44 shots on target, whereas River record as many as 6.64. A No Goal outcome for one of the teams is therefore more likely, as it could result either from another poor attacking performance by River or from the hosts keeping a clean sheet.

The strongest signal is the low potential for a very high-scoring game: River Plate matches finished with fewer than 3.5 goals in 93% of cases, while the figure for Argentinos Juniors was 78%. River concede just 0.43 goals per home match and keep a clean sheet in 64% of games, which significantly limits the visitors’ chances despite their strong current form. The hosts are also in a clear slump, having scored only 1 goal in their last 5 matches, averaging just 0.2 per game. Argentinos have scored 10 goals during this period, but the projected total of 1.95 goals still strongly supports the Under 3.5 option; the Argentine league averages only 2.07 goals per match.

The strongest signal is Argentinos Juniors’ current form: the visitors have won 4 of their last 5 matches, averaging 2.0 goals scored, and have not lost any of those games, while River Plate have suffered 5 consecutive defeats, scoring just 0.2 goals per match. In the first halves of this run, River failed to score a single goal and were trailing at the break in 60% of their matches, whereas Argentinos were leading after 45 minutes in 60% of theirs. The visitors also maintain their advantage after half-time, having averaged 1.2 goals in the second half across their last five appearances, compared with just 0.2 for River. Full-season statistics favour the hosts defensively, with only 0.43 goals conceded on average and clean sheets in 64% of matches, but their current crisis clearly weakens this argument. The scenario of Argentinos leading at the break and securing the win is therefore the most likely, although River’s strong season-long quality limits its edge over the draw-at-half-time-and-away-win variant.