Rizespor vs Beşiktaş: match statistics

I predict an away win for Beşiktaş. Rizespor averages 1.38 goals scored at home and concedes 1.31, while Beşiktaş on the road averages 1.69 goals scored and concedes 1.13. In the last five matches Rizespor has conceded 11 goals (2.2 per match) versus Beşiktaş only 3 (0.6 per match), indicating a clear defensive advantage for the visitors. Additionally, Beşiktaş averages 5.25 shots on target (compared to 4.31 for Rizespor), has a higher xG per match (1.57 vs 1.46) and a lower share of goalless matches (19% vs 25%), which translates into better quality chances and efficiency. Despite a similar points return in the last 5 fixtures (1.4 points each), Rizespor’s higher home loss rate (38% vs 25% for Beşiktaş away) further confirms the visitors’ edge.

I recommend BTTS - Yes, because Rizespor has a seasonal BTTS rate of 71% (60% in the last 5 matches) and conceded 11 goals in their last five games, averaging 2.2 per match. Beşiktaş has a seasonal BTTS of 44% and only 20% in the last 5, but the visitors scored 57 goals this season and have an away xG of 1.57, which compared to Rizespor’s xG against of 1.15 suggests a realistic chance of a goal for the visitors. Offensively Rizespor generates 2.02 xG and averages 18.59 shots and 6.94 on target, versus 14.69 and 5.25 for Beşiktaş, which increases the probability of the hosts scoring. Additionally, the league BTTS is 55% and Rizespor at home records 71% of matches over 2.5 goals, so the statistical balance favors a both-teams-to-score scenario.

The model projects a total of 3.10 goals: 1.74 for Rizespor (xG_for 2.02 vs opponent average xG conceded by Beşiktaş 1.45 → (2.02+1.45)/2=1.74) and 1.36 for Beşiktaş (xG_for 1.57 vs opponent average xG conceded by Rizespor 1.15 → (1.57+1.15)/2=1.36). With a combined expectation of 3.10, the Poisson distribution yields roughly an 18% chance of 0–1 goals in the match, i.e. ~82% for Over 1.5; the probability of Over 2.5 is ~60% (P≤2 ≈40%), and Over 3.5 ≈38% (P≤3 ≈62%). Seasonal metrics support this: Rizespor has 76% of matches over 1.5 goals, Beşiktaş 88%, while Rizespor records 71% of matches over 2.5 versus 44% for Beşiktaş. Additionally, hosts average 18.59 shots and 6.94 on target, visitors 14.69 and 5.25, and the both teams to score rates are 71% (hosts) and 44% (guests), which increases the likelihood of goal exchange. Based on this, I recommend Over 1.5 as the strongest signal (Over 1.5 ≈82%); Over 2.5 has moderate backing (~60%), whereas Over 3.5 is too risky (~38%).

I forecast a Half-Time draw and a full-time home win. Rizespor drew at the break in 65% of home matches, while Beşiktaş drew at the break in 38% of away matches — averaging roughly a 52% probability of an HT draw; additionally, first-half goals average 0.94 (Rizespor) versus 1.00 (Beşiktaş), indicating an evenly matched first half. In the second half the hosts hold the advantage in points and goals: Rizespor averages 1.59 points after the break versus 1.31 for their opponents and scores 0.82 goals after the break vs. 0.69 for Beşiktaş; they also generate higher xG (2.02 vs. 1.57) and more shots (18.59 vs. 14.69), which increases their chances of a turnaround. Although Beşiktaş led at half-time in 50% of away games and has a higher average points at the break (1.88 vs. 1.35), the second-half metrics support an HT/FT outcome of X/1.