Rochdale vs Carlisle United: match statistics
Rochdale stands as the clear favorite for this match, sitting top of the table and showing impressive form with five consecutive victories. The hosts boast a phenomenal home record – an 85% win rate at their ground, averaging 2.23 goals scored and just 0.62 goals conceded per match, resulting in a +21 goal difference. Carlisle United, despite being third in the league, shows weaker recent form over their last five matches (2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses) and has a significantly poorer away record – a 62% win rate, but conceding an average of 1.23 goals per game. xG statistics also favor the hosts (1.8 vs 1.65), and their dominance in possession (58% vs 50%) and shot conversion rate (16% vs 11%) further strengthen their position. Taking all factors into account, Rochdale holds a distinct advantage, although Carlisle's experience in away matches and their solid points tally this season mean a surprise result or a draw cannot be entirely ruled out.
Rochdale vs Carlisle United: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Rochdale played Carlisle United in National League (England). The match was played on 7 February 2026. Final score: 1:0.
Current form
Rochdale: 5-0-0, 3.00 points/match. Carlisle United: 3-1-1, 2.00 points/match.
Goal statistics
Rochdale scores 1.96 and concedes 0.67 goals per match. Carlisle United scores 1.79 and concedes 1.17. League average: 2.84 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Rochdale 44%, Carlisle United 48%. Over 2.5: Rochdale 56%, Carlisle United 55%. League level: BTTS 55%, Over 2.5 54%.
xG, shots and style
Carlisle United has higher xG: 1.91 vs 1.69. Rochdale: 13.0 shots per match, Carlisle United: 15.4.
Match halves
Rochdale: half-time lead 56%, second-half goals 0.93. Carlisle United: half-time lead 45%, second-half goals 1.00.
Goals by minute
Rochdale: 31-45+ (14 goals). Carlisle United: 76-90+ (12 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
National League: 2.84 goals per match, BTTS 55%, Over 2.5 54%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 1-0-0. Average goals 2.00, BTTS 0%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Rochdale stands as the clear favorite for this match, sitting top of the table and showing impressive form with five consecutive victories. The hosts boast a phenomenal home record – an 85% win rate at their ground, averaging 2.23 goals scored and just 0.62 goals conceded per match, resulting in a +21 goal difference. Carlisle United, despite being third in the league, shows weaker recent form over their last five matches (2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses) and has a significantly poorer away record – a 62% win rate, but conceding an average of 1.23 goals per game. xG statistics also favor the hosts (1.8 vs 1.65), and their dominance in possession (58% vs 50%) and shot conversion rate (16% vs 11%) further strengthen their position. Taking all factors into account, Rochdale holds a distinct advantage, although Carlisle's experience in away matches and their solid points tally this season mean a surprise result or a draw cannot be entirely ruled out.
View the statistical overviewHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Rochdale | Carlisle United | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 44% | 41% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.13 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.34 | 0.28 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Rochdale is 50% better for: last-5 form.
3 pts / match - Rochdale · 2 pts / match - Carlisle United
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Rochdale is 9% better for: goals scored per match.
1.96 goals / match - Rochdale · 1.79 goals / match - Carlisle United
Rochdale is 75% better for: goals conceded per match.
0.67 goals / match - Rochdale · 1.17 goals / match - Carlisle United
Rochdale scores in 96% of matches (26 of 27 matches), while Carlisle United keeps a clean sheet in 38% (11 of 29 matches).
Carlisle United scores in 86% of matches (25 of 29 matches), while Rochdale keeps a clean sheet in 56% (15 of 27 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Rochdale
Over / Under - Carlisle United
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Rochdale is 23% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
2 pts / match - Rochdale · 1.62 pts / match - Carlisle United
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Rochdale - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 56% of matches and wins 81%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.1 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Carlisle United - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 45% of matches and wins 62%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 2.20 | 2.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.2 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| Average goals in match | 1.4 | 1.2 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 80% |
| No goal | 20% | 20% |
| Goal difference | +5 | +4 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.2 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 1.8 | 1.4 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 40% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 40% |
| No goal | 20% | 60% |
| Goal difference | +3 | -1 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (14 goals). Concedes most in 46-60 (7). Late-goal balance (76-90): +5 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (12 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (10). Late-goal balance (76-90): +4 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Rochdale
Carlisle United
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (National League).
Teams vs league
| Rochdale | Liga | Carlisle United | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 2.63 | 2.84 | ▲ 2.97 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 44% | 55% | ▼ 48% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 56% | 54% | • 55% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 56% | 25% | ▲ 38% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 78% | 72% | ▲ 76% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 78% | 80% | • 79% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Rochdale 1 - 0 - 0 Carlisle United. Average goals 2.00, both teams scored in 0% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Rochdale vs Carlisle United?
The National League match finished Rochdale 1:0 Carlisle United. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Rochdale vs Carlisle United?
Rochdale score 1.96 goals per game on average and Carlisle United 1.79. The National League average is 2.84 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 54% of games. Both teams score in 44% of Rochdale's matches and 48% of Carlisle United's.
What form are Rochdale and Carlisle United in?
Over the last 5 games Rochdale have a 5-0-0 record (3.00 points per game) and Carlisle United 3-1-1 (2.00 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Rochdale vs Carlisle United?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for Rochdale vs Carlisle United: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.