Rochdale vs Forest Green Rovers: match statistics
Rochdale presents impressive form as the table leader with an 86% win rate at home and a streak of five consecutive victories. The hosts have scored 54 goals this season while conceding just 18, and their home form (14 wins in the last 15 matches) is exceptionally stable. Forest Green Rovers, on the other hand, is going through a distinct crisis, losing three of their last five matches and conceding as many as 11 goals in that period. The difference in disposition is huge – Rochdale has a +22 goal difference at home, while the guests manage just +4 away. xG statistics (1.75 vs 1.71 for the guests) and Rochdale's 57% clean sheet rate in home matches further argue for a decisive victory for the hosts. Taking all parameters into account, especially the current form of both teams, Rochdale holds a clear advantage and should secure the three points.
Rochdale vs Forest Green Rovers: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Rochdale played Forest Green Rovers in National League (England). The match was played on 11 February 2026. Final score: 2:1.
Current form
Rochdale: 5-0-0, 3.00 points/match. Forest Green Rovers: 1-2-2, 1.00 points/match.
Goal statistics
Rochdale scores 1.93 and concedes 0.64 goals per match. Forest Green Rovers scores 1.71 and concedes 1.06. League average: 2.82 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Rochdale 43%, Forest Green Rovers 68%. Over 2.5: Rochdale 54%, Forest Green Rovers 48%. League level: BTTS 55%, Over 2.5 54%.
xG, shots and style
Forest Green Rovers has higher xG: 2.04 vs 1.66. Rochdale: 12.8 shots per match, Forest Green Rovers: 16.8.
Match halves
Rochdale: half-time lead 57%, second-half goals 0.89. Forest Green Rovers: half-time lead 35%, second-half goals 0.94.
Goals by minute
Rochdale: 31-45+ (15 goals). Forest Green Rovers: 46-60 (12 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
National League: 2.82 goals per match, BTTS 55%, Over 2.5 54%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 1-0-0. Average goals 1.00, BTTS 0%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Rochdale presents impressive form as the table leader with an 86% win rate at home and a streak of five consecutive victories. The hosts have scored 54 goals this season while conceding just 18, and their home form (14 wins in the last 15 matches) is exceptionally stable. Forest Green Rovers, on the other hand, is going through a distinct crisis, losing three of their last five matches and conceding as many as 11 goals in that period. The difference in disposition is huge – Rochdale has a +22 goal difference at home, while the guests manage just +4 away. xG statistics (1.75 vs 1.71 for the guests) and Rochdale's 57% clean sheet rate in home matches further argue for a decisive victory for the hosts. Taking all parameters into account, especially the current form of both teams, Rochdale holds a clear advantage and should secure the three points.
View the statistical overviewHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Rochdale | Forest Green Rovers | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 43% | 38% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.13 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.35 | 0.27 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Rochdale is 200% better for: last-5 form.
3 pts / match - Rochdale · 1 pts / match - Forest Green Rovers
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Rochdale is 13% better for: goals scored per match.
1.93 goals / match - Rochdale · 1.71 goals / match - Forest Green Rovers
Rochdale is 66% better for: goals conceded per match.
0.64 goals / match - Rochdale · 1.06 goals / match - Forest Green Rovers
Rochdale scores in 96% of matches (27 of 28 matches), while Forest Green Rovers keeps a clean sheet in 26% (8 of 31 matches).
Forest Green Rovers scores in 87% of matches (27 of 31 matches), while Rochdale keeps a clean sheet in 57% (16 of 28 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Rochdale
Over / Under - Forest Green Rovers
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Rochdale is 47% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
2.04 pts / match - Rochdale · 1.39 pts / match - Forest Green Rovers
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Rochdale - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 57% of matches and wins 82%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.1 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Forest Green Rovers - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 35% of matches and wins 52%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 2.20 | 2.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.2 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| Average goals in match | 1.4 | 1.0 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 80% |
| No goal | 20% | 40% |
| Goal difference | +5 | +3 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.2 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 1.8 | 1.8 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 20% | 60% |
| No goal | 40% | 20% |
| Goal difference | -3 | +3 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (15 goals). Concedes most in 46-60 (7). Late-goal balance (76-90): +5 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 46-60 (12 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (9). Late-goal balance (76-90): +4 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Rochdale
Forest Green Rovers
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (National League).
Teams vs league
| Rochdale | Liga | Forest Green Rovers | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 2.57 | 2.82 | • 2.77 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 43% | 55% | ▲ 68% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | • 54% | 54% | ▼ 48% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 57% | 25% | • 26% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 79% | 72% | ▲ 84% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 75% | 80% | ▼ 77% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Rochdale 1 - 0 - 0 Forest Green Rovers. Average goals 1.00, both teams scored in 0% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Rochdale vs Forest Green Rovers?
The National League match finished Rochdale 2:1 Forest Green Rovers. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Rochdale vs Forest Green Rovers?
Rochdale score 1.93 goals per game on average and Forest Green Rovers 1.71. The National League average is 2.82 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 54% of games. Both teams score in 43% of Rochdale's matches and 68% of Forest Green Rovers's.
What form are Rochdale and Forest Green Rovers in?
Over the last 5 games Rochdale have a 5-0-0 record (3.00 points per game) and Forest Green Rovers 1-2-2 (1.00 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Rochdale vs Forest Green Rovers?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.