Rochdale vs Oldham Athletic: match statistics

Rochdale sit as low as 23rd, but they average 1.67 goals per game at home, while Oldham score just 0.67 goals away from home. The hosts have a clear possession advantage (58% versus 43%) and have yet to record a home fixture without scoring; Oldham, meanwhile, have failed to score in 33% of their away matches. Although Rochdale allow opponents an xG of 1.56 and concede an average of 2 goals at home, Oldham’s defence offers little stability either, with the visitors yet to keep a clean sheet in any away match and conceding 1.67 goals on average. Both teams have collected just 0.8 points per game across their last five appearances, but Oldham have lost all three of their away fixtures so far, strengthening the case for a narrow Rochdale win. The hosts’ advantage is not substantial, as their home xG stands at just 0.96, but greater efficiency and home advantage point towards a 1 result.

The BTTS scenario does not have a clear edge, primarily due to Oldham’s significantly weaker away scoring record: the visitors average just 0.67 goals, and failed to score in 33% of such matches. Rochdale concede an average of 0.67 goals at home and keep a clean sheet in 67% of matches, which is a very strong argument that at least one team may fail to score. The hosts are also highly productive in attack, averaging 2.00 goals with an xG of 1.69, while Oldham’s defence allows an average of 1.67 goals and opponents’ xG of 1.55. Supporting BTTS are Oldham’s xG of 1.39 and the fact that both teams scored in 60% of the sides’ last five matches, but Rochdale’s defensive advantage over the visitors’ actual scoring output shifts the prediction towards BTTS - No.

Rochdale score an average of 2.00 goals at home, while Oldham concede 1.67 away from home, which clearly supports around 1.70 goals for the hosts. However, the visitors are significantly less clinical: they score just 0.67 goals per away match and convert 5% of their shots, while Rochdale keep a clean sheet in 67% of their home fixtures. At the same time, the last five matches for both teams have each produced at least three goals in 60% of games, making the 2.5 line very evenly balanced. The case for Under 3.5 is strengthened by the fact that neither team has recorded a match with at least four goals so far, while the projected total of 2.65 goals remains clearly below this line. The most likely outcome is a total of 2–3 goals, with Rochdale holding the edge.

The most likely HT/FT outcome is a draw at half-time followed by a Rochdale victory, as the hosts score only 0.33 goals per match before the break, while Oldham also concede just 0.33 during this period. Rochdale clearly improves after half-time: they average 1.67 goals scored in the second half and concede only 0.33, whereas Oldham have not scored a single goal after the break and concede an average of 1.33. The hosts’ advantage over the full match is also reflected in their average of 2.00 goals scored compared with Oldham’s 0.67, as well as in the xG figures of 1.69 versus 1.39 for the visitors. Oldham led at the break in as many as 67% of their away matches, so a Rochdale turnaround remains a significant alternative scenario; however, the visitors failed to win any of those matches and lost 67% of them. Rochdale have kept a clean sheet in 67% of their home matches, while Oldham have kept none away from home, further strengthening the forecast of the match shifting in the hosts’ favour later on.