Rochdale vs Swindon Town: match statistics
Rochdale vs Swindon Town: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Rochdale played Swindon Town in EFL League Two (England). The match was played on 3 October 2026. Venue: Crown Oil Arena. Final score: 1:0.
Current form
Rochdale: 3-1-1, 2.00 points/match. Swindon Town: 2-1-2, 1.40 points/match.
Goal statistics
Rochdale scores 1.13 and concedes 1.38 goals per match. Swindon Town scores 1.13 and concedes 1.50. League average: 2.59 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Rochdale 38%, Swindon Town 50%. Over 2.5: Rochdale 63%, Swindon Town 63%. League level: BTTS 55%, Over 2.5 46%.
xG, shots and style
Swindon Town has higher xG: 1.05 vs 0.96. Rochdale: 8.0 shots per match, Swindon Town: 8.8.
Match halves
Rochdale: half-time lead 38%, second-half goals 0.50. Swindon Town: half-time lead 13%, second-half goals 0.75.
Goals by minute
Rochdale: 0-15 (3 goals). Swindon Town: 76-90+ (3 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
League Two: 2.59 goals per match, BTTS 55%, Over 2.5 46%.
Head-to-head
No aligned head-to-head sample is available in the database.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Rochdale have a clear edge over their last five matches, taking 8 points and scoring 8 goals, compared with Swindon Town’s 1 point and 2 goals. The hosts have won 2 of their 4 home games and scored in every one, while the visitors have lost 3 of their 4 away games without scoring a single goal. Swindon’s away defence concedes an average of 2 goals and allows opponents chances worth 2.05 xG per match, giving Rochdale an opportunity to make home advantage count. However, caution is warranted given the hosts’ attacking xG of just 0.92 at home and the 1.57 xG they concede at the other end, so a draw remains a realistic outcome.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
The strongest indicator against both teams scoring is Swindon’s away form: they average 0 goals scored, have failed to score in 100% of matches, and manage just 1.5 shots on target per game. In their last 5 matches, the visitors have also scored only 2 goals—an average of 0.4 per game—even though their xG was 1.11. Rochdale have greater attacking potential at home, averaging 2.25 goals and 5 shots on target, while Swindon concede an average of 2 goals away, so a home goal looks likely. The risk to the BTTS - No pick is that Rochdale concede an average of 1 goal at home and have seen BTTS in 100% of their home matches. However, the visitors’ poor finishing supports the scenario in which Swindon fail to score.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
Rochdale average 2.25 goals at home, while Swindon concede 2.0 goals away, giving the hosts a realistic chance of scoring at least two goals on their own. The underlying metrics support this: Rochdale’s xG is 1.34, while Swindon’s xG conceded stands at 2.05. Over their last five matches, Swindon have conceded an average of 2.0 goals and scored just 0.4, so their contribution to the total could be limited. Over 1.5 goals has landed in all of Rochdale’s home matches, but in only 50% of Swindon’s away games, making it a more cautious choice than Over 2.5 goals. With a projected total of 2.70 goals, Over 1.5 goals therefore offers the clearest edge.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
Rochdale won 75% of the analysed home matches, scoring an average of 2.25 goals, while Swindon failed to win any of their away matches and did not score in any of them. Before half-time, the hosts score an average of 0.75 goals, while the visitors concede 0.75 and have not led away from home, supporting the case for Rochdale to lead at the break. Their advantage could hold after the interval: Rochdale score an average of 1.5 goals in the second half, while Swindon concede 1.25. The difference in shots on target also supports the 1/1 pick, with the hosts averaging 5 per match compared with 1.5 for the visitors. A draw at half-time followed by a Rochdale win remains a notable alternative, as both teams were level at the break in 50% of the analysed matches.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Rochdale | Swindon Town | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 33% | 37% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.43 | 0.35 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Rochdale is 43% better for: last-5 form.
2 pts / match - Rochdale · 1.4 pts / match - Swindon Town
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Rochdale is 9% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.38 goals / match - Rochdale · 1.5 goals / match - Swindon Town
Rochdale scores in 63% of matches (5 of 8 matches), while Swindon Town keeps a clean sheet in 13% (1 of 8 matches).
Swindon Town scores in 50% of matches (4 of 8 matches), while Rochdale keeps a clean sheet in 38% (3 of 8 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Rochdale
Over / Under - Swindon Town
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Rochdale is 57% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.38 pts / match - Rochdale · 0.88 pts / match - Swindon Town
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Rochdale - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 38% of matches and wins 38%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.1 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Swindon Town - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 13% of matches and wins 38%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.0 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 1.4 | 1.2 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 80% |
| No goal | 40% | 40% |
| Goal difference | +3 | 0 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.0 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 1.4 | 1.6 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 20% | 60% |
| No goal | 60% | 60% |
| Goal difference | -3 | +2 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 0-15 (3 goals). Concedes most in 16-30 (2). Late-goal balance (76-90): 0.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (3 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (5). Late-goal balance (76-90): -2 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Rochdale
Swindon Town
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (League Two).
Teams vs league
| Rochdale | Liga | Swindon Town | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | • 2.50 | 2.59 | • 2.63 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 38% | 55% | ▼ 50% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 63% | 46% | ▲ 63% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 38% | 27% | ▼ 13% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 75% | 71% | ▲ 75% |
| Goal after half-time | • 75% | 75% | • 75% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
FAQ
What was the result of Rochdale vs Swindon Town?
The EFL League Two match finished Rochdale 1:0 Swindon Town. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Rochdale vs Swindon Town?
Rochdale score 1.13 goals per game on average and Swindon Town 1.13. The EFL League Two average is 2.59 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 46% of games. Both teams score in 38% of Rochdale's matches and 50% of Swindon Town's.
What form are Rochdale and Swindon Town in?
Over the last 5 games Rochdale have a 3-1-1 record (2.00 points per game) and Swindon Town 2-1-2 (1.40 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Rochdale vs Swindon Town?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.