Rodez vs Amiens SC: match statistics

Rodez (6th) at home concedes on average 0.87 goals per match and records an average xG of 1.47, while Amiens (17th) away concedes 1.67 goals and has xG only 1.02. The hosts average 12.93 shots and 4.2 on target per home match with a conversion rate of 9%, while the visitors manage just 8.8 shots and 3.53 on target away, although Amiens have a higher finishing rate of 14%. Form supports Rodez’s edge: the hosts have won 3 of their last 5 (3-2-0) and average 2.2 pts in that period, whereas Amiens have failed to win any of their last 5 (0-1-4) and average only 0.2 pts/match. Additionally, Rodez scored 7 and conceded 4 in their last five matches, while Amiens scored 6 and conceded 11, with an away goal difference of -7 and a 53% away loss rate. Considering the hosts’ defensive stability, the xG advantage (1.47 vs 1.02) and the significant form gap, I tip Rodez to win.

Both teams have season BTTS rates of 53% (Rodez) and 60% (Amiens), versus a league average of 51%, which already favors the “both teams to score” option. Amiens concedes 1.67 goals per season on average and as many as 2.2 goals in the last 5 matches (11 conceded), while Rodez concedes 1.8 goals seasonally (35 conceded), although in the last 5 they concede only 0.8 (4). In attack Rodez averages 1.07 goals per match with xG_for 1.14, Amiens 1.2 goals with xG_for 1.02, and xG_against values of 1.56 (Rodez) and 1.86 (Amiens) indicate both teams allow chances at roughly ~1–1.8 xG. Additionally, average on-target shots 3.6 (Rodez) and 3.53 (Amiens) and shot conversion rates of 11% and 14% show a realistic ability to convert chances, while low clean sheet percentages of 13% and 20% increase the risk of mutual scoring. Considering the above numbers and form (last 5: Rodez 80% BTTS, Amiens 60% BTTS, formlines wwddw vs llldl), the stronger signal is BTTS = Yes.

A model combining xG values yields expected goals of 1.50 for Rodez (attacking xG 1.14 vs opponent defense 1.86) and 1.29 for Amiens (attacking xG 1.02 vs Rodez defense 1.56), totaling 2.79 goals. This aligns with the league average of 2.46, and seasonal indicators show Over 1.5 in 60% of Rodez matches and 73% of Amiens matches, with Over 2.5 in 53% of fixtures involving both teams, suggesting a tendency toward higher-scoring games. In the last 5 matches Rodez averaged 1.4 goals scored and 0.8 conceded, while Amiens averaged 1.2 scored and conceded as many as 2.2, further increasing the likelihood of goals in this fixture. A Poisson distribution with combined λ=2.79 gives probability of Over 1.5 at approximately 77%, Over 2.5 at about 53% and Over 3.5 around 31%, consistent with seasonal BTTS tendencies of 53%/60%. Therefore the strongest signal is the Over at 1.5 and this is my recommendation: Over 1.5 as the most data-driven pick (expected 1.50 and 1.29 goals for home and away respectively).

The strongest signal indicates Amiens leading at Half-Time and the visitors winning at Full-Time (2/2). Seasonal data show Rodez led at the break in only 7% of matches, while Amiens did so in 40%, and hosts were trailing at the break in 53% of games. Amiens have superior Half-Time metrics: they average 1.53 points at the break versus Rodez’s 0.6, score 0.53 goals on average before Half-Time compared to Rodez’s 0.47, and concede 0.6 goals by the break versus Rodez’s 1.07, which supports maintaining the lead. Full-match season figures also favor the visitors (average points 1.0 vs 0.6 and win rate 27% vs 13%), although recent form over the last five matches must be considered: Rodez 'wwddw' with an average of 2.2 points and 0.8 goals conceded per game, and Amiens 'llldl' with an average of 0.2 points and 2.2 goals conceded per game, which increases the risk of a draw or a turnaround. Consequently, I assign the highest probability to the 2/2 scenario (35%), with 2/X (14%) and X/X (20%) as the main alternatives.